🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Zenit cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Spartak Moscow.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zenit beat Spartak Moscow 2-0 at Gazprom Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zenit 1.85 xG and Spartak Moscow 0.95 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Spartak Moscow landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zenit attack 1.12 / defence 0.74 against Spartak Moscow attack 1.20 / defence 1.07, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zenit 58% | Draw 22% | Spartak Moscow 19%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zenit 46%, Spartak Moscow 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zenit's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and duly kept one.

Spartak Moscow's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Zenit 2.16 PPG, Spartak Moscow 1.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zenit win broke the near-deadlock. Spartak Moscow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights