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Prediction vindicated as Zenit edge out Krylia Sovetov 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zenit beat Krylia Sovetov 2-1 at Gazprom Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zenit 2.44 xG and Krylia Sovetov 0.50 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zenit attack 1.11 / defence 0.70 against Krylia Sovetov attack 0.72 / defence 1.36, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zenit 80% | Draw 14% | Krylia Sovetov 6%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 80%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zenit 46%, Krylia Sovetov 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zenit's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.

Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Zenit arrived the stronger side — 2.19 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights