Zenit 2-1 Krylia Sovetov – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Zenit (80%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Zenit face Krylia Sovetov.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Zenit host Krylia Sovetov at Gazprom Arena in Premier League (matchday 23). Kick-off is Saturday 4 April 2026 at 14:15 UK time.
Form Guide
Zenit — last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L, averaging 2.50 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Zenit's form when playing at home: 9W 1D 0L across their last 10 home games (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Krylia Sovetov stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Krylia Sovetov's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 9L across their last 10 road games (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On current form, Zenit have the edge — a 1.70 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Zenit's 30% BTTS rate and Krylia Sovetov's 30% (from Zenit's last 10 home games and Krylia Sovetov's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
Zenit hold a clear advantage across the 8 H2H matches in our data, with 4 wins compared to 1 for Krylia Sovetov and 3 draws.
The 8 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.5 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 9 Nov 2025, ended Zenit 1–1 Krylia Sovetov — a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Zenit and goals — 4 wins from 8 H2H matches and an average of 3.5 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Zenit in-play and half-time data (last 52 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
Krylia Sovetov in-play and half-time data (last 52 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zenit 42% versus Krylia Sovetov 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zenit 46% | Krylia Sovetov 46%). Note also that Krylia Sovetov surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Zenit recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 56% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zenit 2.44 xG and Krylia Sovetov 0.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zenit attack 1.108 / defence 0.698 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.722 / defence 1.363. League average goals — home 1.617 / away 0.995. Krylia Sovetov's defence rating of 1.363 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Zenit's projected output up. Krylia Sovetov's attack rating of 0.722 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.50. Zenit have a tight defence (rating 0.698), which is pulling Krylia Sovetov's projected output down. Data: built from Zenit's last 52 games and Krylia Sovetov's last 52.
Result probabilities: Zenit 80% | Draw 14% | Krylia Sovetov 6%. Fair-value odds: Zenit 1.25 | Draw 7.15 | Krylia Sovetov 17.36. The model has a clear lean to Zenit (80%) — a 66pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 36% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 64% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Zenit as the most likely outcome at 80% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Zenit's last 10 home games and Krylia Sovetov's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Zenit 30% (last 10 home games) | Krylia Sovetov 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zenit vs Krylia Sovetov | Competition: Premier League, matchday 23 | Venue: Gazprom Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 4 April 2026 at 14:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zenit 80% | Draw 14% | Krylia Sovetov 6% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 36% (No 64%) | xG Zenit 2.44 / Krylia Sovetov 0.50 • Poisson strength factors: Zenit attack 1.108 / def 0.698 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.722 / def 1.363 | league avg home 1.617 / away 0.995 • Poisson stance: Zenit (80%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.44
Zenit xG
Expected Goals
0.50
Krylia Sovetov xG
36%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Zenit vs Krylia Sovetov FAQs
What time does Zenit vs Krylia Sovetov kick off?
Zenit vs Krylia Sovetov kicked off at 14:15 UK time on Saturday 4 April 2026 at Gazprom Arena.
What was the final score in Zenit vs Krylia Sovetov?
Zenit 2 - 1 Krylia Sovetov.
Where is Zenit vs Krylia Sovetov being played?
The match is being played at Gazprom Arena.
What competition is Zenit vs Krylia Sovetov part of?
Zenit vs Krylia Sovetov is a Premier League fixture (matchday 23) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Zenit vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our statistical model gives Zenit a 80% chance of winning, Krylia Sovetov a 6% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Zenit the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zenit vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Zenit and Krylia Sovetov will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (64%).
Will Zenit vs Krylia Sovetov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Zenit's attack at 1.11x the league average against Krylia Sovetov's defence at 1.36x — combine the two and it projects 2.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Krylia Sovetov's attack versus Zenit's defence, projects 0.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Zenit's last 52 games and Krylia Sovetov's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (12.8%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zenit Win
80%
1.25
14%
7.15
6%
17.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
3 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.44
Zenit xG
Total xG
2.94
0.50
Krylia Sovetov xG
1.25
80%
Home win
7.15
14%
Draw
17.36
6%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.78
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
61%
1.65
9%
11.50
Win to Nil
49%
2.06
1%
199.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 6.4 | 1.6 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 2 | 15.7 | 7.9 | 2.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 12.8 | 6.4 | 1.6 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Zenit vs Krylia Sovetov Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Zenit vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Zenit and Krylia Sovetov expected to score?
The model projects 2.44 expected goals for Zenit and 0.50 for Krylia Sovetov, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Zenit vs Krylia Sovetov?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 80%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 52 outings, Zenit have picked up 2.19 PPG on a 34W 12D 6L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Krylia Sovetov's form line: 13W 13D 26L from 52 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-D.
Put side by side, Zenit are the form team by 1.19 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Krylia Sovetov.
Venue Form
On home soil, Zenit have posted 2.46 PPG from their last 26 home games (20W 4D 2L).
On the road, Krylia Sovetov have gone 4W 7D 15L from their last 26 away games — 0.73 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zenit come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Zenit are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.63 conceded per game recently; Krylia Sovetov are on 1.12 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Defensively: Zenit have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zenit
Blended
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
Zenit (Home) vs Krylia Sovetov (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Zenit
Blended
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
❓ Zenit vs Krylia Sovetov Form FAQs
What form are Zenit and Krylia Sovetov in coming into this match?
Zenit have gone 34W 12D 6L in their last 52 games (2.19 PPG), while Krylia Sovetov have gone 13W 13D 26L in their last 52 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zenit at home or Krylia Sovetov away?
Zenit's home record (2.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zenit at home: 2.46 PPG; Krylia Sovetov away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Zenit or Krylia Sovetov been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zenit have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their recent games, Krylia Sovetov in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from March 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 2 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Zenit have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 29 Apr 2023, when Zenit won Krylia Sovetov 1-5 Zenit.
Zenit's record when hosting Krylia Sovetov specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Zenit
3
Draws
1
Krylia Sovetov
Recent Meetings
❓ Zenit vs Krylia Sovetov H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Zenit and Krylia Sovetov?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Zenit have won 6, Krylia Sovetov have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Zenit and Krylia Sovetov last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 November 2026: Krylia Sovetov 0-3 Zenit.
Who has won more matches between Zenit and Krylia Sovetov?
Zenit have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zenit are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 57% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zenit 42%, Krylia Sovetov 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Zenit) and 50% (Krylia Sovetov).
On the defensive side: Zenit keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Krylia Sovetov in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zenit home games / Krylia Sovetov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Zenit vs Krylia Sovetov Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Zenit and Krylia Sovetov matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Zenit's recent matches and 54% of Krylia Sovetov's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Zenit and Krylia Sovetov matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Zenit's recent games and 50% of Krylia Sovetov's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zenit and Krylia Sovetov matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Zenit's recent matches and 81% of Krylia Sovetov's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Zenit edge out Krylia Sovetov 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zenit beat Krylia Sovetov 2-1 at Gazprom Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zenit 2.44 xG and Krylia Sovetov 0.50 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zenit attack 1.11 / defence 0.70 against Krylia Sovetov attack 0.72 / defence 1.36, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zenit 80% | Draw 14% | Krylia Sovetov 6%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 80%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zenit 46%, Krylia Sovetov 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zenit's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Zenit arrived the stronger side — 2.19 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.