Zenit 2-0 Akhmat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Zenit (59%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Zenit face Akhmat.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Zenit welcome Akhmat to Gazprom Arena in Premier League (matchday 27). Kick-off is Sunday 26 April 2026 at 18:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Zenit have gone 7W 2D 1L — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters, Zenit have posted 9W 1D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.30 — Zenit are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Akhmat stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Akhmat away from home: 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On current form, Zenit have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Zenit: 5 wins from 8 H2H matches against 2 for Akhmat, with 1 draw.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 9 Aug 2025, ended Zenit 0–1 Akhmat — a Akhmat win.
The head-to-head data gives Zenit an edge — 5 wins from 8 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Data
Zenit trading profile (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
Akhmat trading profile (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 53%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zenit 43% versus Akhmat 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zenit 45% | Akhmat 46%). Note also that Akhmat surrender HT leads in 53% of cases while Zenit recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 56% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zenit 1.79 xG and Akhmat 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zenit attack 1.106 / defence 0.754 | Akhmat attack 1.080 / defence 1.169. League average goals — home 1.385 / away 1.060. Zenit have a tight defence (rating 0.754), which is pulling Akhmat's projected output down. Data: built from Zenit's last 56 games and Akhmat's last 56.
Result probabilities: Zenit 59% | Draw 24% | Akhmat 17%. Fair-value odds: Zenit 1.69 | Draw 4.25 | Akhmat 5.74. The model has a clear lean to Zenit (59%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Zenit as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Zenit 40% (last 10 home games) | Akhmat 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zenit vs Akhmat | Competition: Premier League, matchday 27 | Venue: Gazprom Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 26 April 2026 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zenit 59% | Draw 24% | Akhmat 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Zenit 1.79 / Akhmat 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Zenit attack 1.106 / def 0.754 | Akhmat attack 1.080 / def 1.169 | league avg home 1.385 / away 1.060 • Poisson stance: Zenit (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Zenit xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Akhmat xG
49%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Zenit vs Akhmat FAQs
What time does Zenit vs Akhmat kick off?
Zenit vs Akhmat kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Sunday 26 April 2026 at Gazprom Arena.
What was the final score in Zenit vs Akhmat?
Zenit 2 - 0 Akhmat.
Where is Zenit vs Akhmat being played?
The match is being played at Gazprom Arena.
What competition is Zenit vs Akhmat part of?
Zenit vs Akhmat is a Premier League fixture (matchday 27) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Zenit vs Akhmat?
Our statistical model gives Zenit a 59% chance of winning, Akhmat a 17% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Zenit the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zenit vs Akhmat?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Zenit and Akhmat will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Zenit vs Akhmat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Zenit's attack rating (1.11) and Akhmat's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.79 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Akhmat's attack versus Zenit's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Zenit's last 56 games and Akhmat's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zenit Win
59%
1.69
24%
4.25
17%
5.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Zenit xG
Total xG
2.66
0.86
Akhmat xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
5.74
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
17%
6.00
Win to Nil
25%
4.02
3%
34.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 10.9 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.7 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Zenit vs Akhmat Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Zenit vs Akhmat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Zenit and Akhmat expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Zenit and 0.86 for Akhmat, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Zenit vs Akhmat?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Zenit's recent record stands at 36W 14D 6L from 56 games, a 2.18 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-D in the last five.
Akhmat, meanwhile, have gone 13W 19D 24L across 56 games — 1.04 PPG, with W-L-D-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Zenit by 1.14 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Akhmat heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Zenit have managed 21W 5D 2L from their last 28 home games — 2.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Akhmat's away record stands at 2W 10D 16L across their last 28 away games, a 0.57 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.04 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Akhmat's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zenit come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Zenit are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game recently; Akhmat are on 1.07 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Zenit have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zenit
Blended
Akhmat
Blended
Zenit (Home) vs Akhmat (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Zenit
Blended
Akhmat
Blended
❓ Zenit vs Akhmat Form FAQs
What form are Zenit and Akhmat in coming into this match?
Zenit have gone 36W 14D 6L in their last 56 games (2.18 PPG), while Akhmat have gone 13W 19D 24L in their last 56 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zenit at home or Akhmat away?
Zenit's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zenit at home: 2.43 PPG; Akhmat away: 0.57 PPG.
Have Zenit or Akhmat been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zenit have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their recent games, Akhmat in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 18 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Zenit have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 19 May 2024, when Zenit won Akhmat 1-5 Zenit.
Zenit's record when hosting Akhmat specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Zenit
1
Draws
2
Akhmat
Recent Meetings
❓ Zenit vs Akhmat H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Zenit and Akhmat?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Zenit have won 7, Akhmat have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Zenit and Akhmat last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2026: Zenit 3-2 Akhmat.
Who has won more matches between Zenit and Akhmat?
Zenit have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zenit are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Akhmat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 75% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zenit 46%, Akhmat 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Zenit) and 54% (Akhmat).
On the defensive side: Zenit keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Akhmat in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zenit home games / Akhmat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Zenit vs Akhmat Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Zenit and Akhmat matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Zenit's recent matches and 61% of Akhmat's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Zenit and Akhmat matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Zenit's recent games and 54% of Akhmat's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zenit and Akhmat matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Zenit's recent matches and 82% of Akhmat's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zenit cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Akhmat.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zenit beat Akhmat 2-0 at Gazprom Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zenit 1.79 xG and Akhmat 0.86 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Akhmat landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zenit attack 1.11 / defence 0.75 against Akhmat attack 1.08 / defence 1.17, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zenit 59% | Draw 24% | Akhmat 17%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zenit 45%, Akhmat 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zenit's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and duly kept one.
Akhmat's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Zenit arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Akhmat (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.