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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Zenit cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Akhmat.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zenit beat Akhmat 2-0 at Gazprom Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zenit 1.79 xG and Akhmat 0.86 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Akhmat landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zenit attack 1.11 / defence 0.75 against Akhmat attack 1.08 / defence 1.17, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zenit 59% | Draw 24% | Akhmat 17%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zenit 45%, Akhmat 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zenit's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and duly kept one.

Akhmat's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Zenit arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Akhmat (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights