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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Zenit run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Akhmat.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zenit beat Akhmat 3-0 at Gazprom Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zenit 1.92 xG and Akhmat 0.77 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Zenit beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zenit attack 1.18 / defence 0.82 against Akhmat attack 0.86 / defence 1.11, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zenit 63% | Draw 25% | Akhmat 13%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zenit 48%, Akhmat 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zenit's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.

Akhmat's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Zenit arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.02. Form held, and they took the win. Zenit (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.72 average — above their attacking norm. Akhmat (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights