Zenit 3-0 Akhmat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Zenit (63%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Zenit face Akhmat.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Zenit welcome Akhmat to Gazprom Arena in Premier League (matchday 30). Kick-off is Saturday 24 May 2025 at 15:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Zenit have gone 7W 2D 1L — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters, Zenit have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Akhmat stand at 1W 6D 3L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Akhmat away from home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Zenit have the edge — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Zenit's games and 60% of Akhmat's (from Zenit's last 10 home games and Akhmat's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Zenit: 4 wins from 6 H2H matches against 1 for Akhmat, with 1 draw.
The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 2.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 10 Nov 2024, ended Zenit 2–1 Akhmat — a Zenit win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Zenit and goals — 4 wins from 6 H2H matches and an average of 2.8 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Zenit trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Akhmat trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zenit 48% versus Akhmat 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zenit 48% | Akhmat 44%). Note also that Akhmat surrender HT leads in 42% of cases while Zenit recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 44% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zenit 1.92 xG and Akhmat 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zenit attack 1.179 / defence 0.816 | Akhmat attack 0.862 / defence 1.107. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.100. Data: built from Zenit's last 59 games and Akhmat's last 59.
Result probabilities: Zenit 63% | Draw 25% | Akhmat 13%. Fair-value odds: Zenit 1.59 | Draw 4.06 | Akhmat 7.90. The model has a clear lean to Zenit (63%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Zenit as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Zenit's last 10 home games and Akhmat's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Zenit 60% (last 10 home games) | Akhmat 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zenit vs Akhmat | Competition: Premier League, matchday 30 | Venue: Gazprom Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 24 May 2025 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zenit 63% | Draw 25% | Akhmat 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Zenit 1.92 / Akhmat 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Zenit attack 1.179 / def 0.816 | Akhmat attack 0.862 / def 1.107 | league avg home 1.470 / away 1.100 • Poisson stance: Zenit (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Zenit xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Akhmat xG
48%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Zenit vs Akhmat FAQs
What time does Zenit vs Akhmat kick off?
Zenit vs Akhmat kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 24 May 2025 at Gazprom Arena.
What was the final score in Zenit vs Akhmat?
Zenit 3 - 0 Akhmat.
Where is Zenit vs Akhmat being played?
The match is being played at Gazprom Arena.
What competition is Zenit vs Akhmat part of?
Zenit vs Akhmat is a Premier League fixture (matchday 30) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Zenit vs Akhmat?
Our statistical model gives Zenit a 63% chance of winning, Akhmat a 13% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Zenit the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zenit vs Akhmat?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Zenit and Akhmat will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Zenit vs Akhmat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Zenit's attack rating (1.18) and Akhmat's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.92 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Akhmat's attack versus Zenit's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Zenit's last 59 games and Akhmat's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 1-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zenit Win
63%
1.59
25%
4.06
13%
7.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Zenit xG
Total xG
2.69
0.77
Akhmat xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
7.90
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
15%
6.81
Win to Nil
29%
3.46
2%
53.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 10.1 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.0 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Zenit vs Akhmat Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Zenit vs Akhmat?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Zenit and Akhmat expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Zenit and 0.77 for Akhmat, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Zenit vs Akhmat?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Zenit's recent record stands at 36W 12D 11L from 59 games, a 2.03 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five.
Akhmat, meanwhile, have gone 14W 18D 27L across 59 games — 1.02 PPG, with L-L-D-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Zenit by 1.01 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Akhmat heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Zenit have managed 18W 5D 6L from their last 29 home games — 2.03 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Akhmat's away record stands at 6W 7D 16L across their last 29 away games, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zenit come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Zenit are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 0.76 conceded per game recently; Akhmat are on 1.02 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Defensively: Zenit have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zenit
Current Season
Akhmat
Current Season
Zenit (Home) vs Akhmat (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Zenit
Current Season
Akhmat
Current Season
❓ Zenit vs Akhmat Form FAQs
What form are Zenit and Akhmat in coming into this match?
Zenit have gone 36W 12D 11L in their last 59 games (2.03 PPG), while Akhmat have gone 14W 18D 27L in their last 59 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zenit at home or Akhmat away?
Zenit's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zenit at home: 2.03 PPG; Akhmat away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Zenit or Akhmat been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zenit have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Akhmat in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 18 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Zenit have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 19 May 2024, when Zenit won Akhmat 1-5 Zenit.
Zenit's record when hosting Akhmat specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Zenit
1
Draws
2
Akhmat
Recent Meetings
❓ Zenit vs Akhmat H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Zenit and Akhmat?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Zenit have won 7, Akhmat have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Zenit and Akhmat last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2026: Zenit 3-2 Akhmat.
Who has won more matches between Zenit and Akhmat?
Zenit have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zenit see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Akhmat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zenit 45%, Akhmat 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Zenit) and 41% (Akhmat).
On the defensive side: Zenit keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Akhmat in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zenit home games / Akhmat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Zenit vs Akhmat Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Zenit and Akhmat matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Zenit's recent matches and 45% of Akhmat's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Zenit and Akhmat matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Zenit's recent games and 41% of Akhmat's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zenit and Akhmat matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 59% of Zenit's recent matches and 66% of Akhmat's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Zenit run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Akhmat.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zenit beat Akhmat 3-0 at Gazprom Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zenit 1.92 xG and Akhmat 0.77 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Zenit beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zenit attack 1.18 / defence 0.82 against Akhmat attack 0.86 / defence 1.11, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zenit 63% | Draw 25% | Akhmat 13%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zenit 48%, Akhmat 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zenit's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Akhmat's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Zenit arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.02. Form held, and they took the win. Zenit (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.72 average — above their attacking norm. Akhmat (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.