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Poisson model favours Zenit (63%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Zenit face Akhmat.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 30 as Zenit welcome Akhmat to Gazprom Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 24 May 2025 at 14:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Premier League games this season, Zenit have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

In front of their own supporters this season, Zenit have posted 6W 2D 2L at Gazprom Arena — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Akhmat stand at 1W 6D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Akhmat away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

On current form, Zenit have the edge — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Zenit register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Akhmat in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

Zenit hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 7 previous encounters compared to 1 for Akhmat, with 1 draws in between.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2024, ended 2–1 with Zenit winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Zenit and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

In-Play Data

Zenit trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.

Akhmat trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zenit 48% versus Akhmat 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zenit 48% | Akhmat 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Zenit 1.92 xG and Akhmat 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zenit attack 1.179 / defence 0.816 | Akhmat attack 0.862 / defence 1.107. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.100. Data: 59 Zenit games / 59 Akhmat games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Zenit 63% | Draw 25% | Akhmat 13%. Fair-value odds: Zenit 1.59 | Draw 4.00 | Akhmat 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Zenit (63%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Zenit as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: Zenit 60% | Akhmat 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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