Ural 1-2 CSKA Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates CSKA Moscow at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ural vs CSKA Moscow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 23 as Ural welcome CSKA Moscow to Ekaterinburg Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 15 April 2023 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Ural have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ural, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ural at Ekaterinburg Arena this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
CSKA Moscow — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, CSKA Moscow have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ural 1.50 PPG, CSKA Moscow 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Ural, 2 for CSKA Moscow and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Jul 2022, ended 0–2 with CSKA Moscow winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Ural in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
CSKA Moscow in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ural 42% versus CSKA Moscow 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ural 44% | CSKA Moscow 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ural 1.09 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ural attack 0.829 / defence 0.976 | CSKA Moscow attack 0.903 / defence 0.868. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.313. Data: 52 Ural games / 52 CSKA Moscow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ural 34% | Draw 29% | CSKA Moscow 37%. Fair-value odds: Ural 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | CSKA Moscow 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is CSKA Moscow at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on CSKA Moscow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ural 40% | CSKA Moscow 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ural vs CSKA Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Ekaterinburg Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Apr 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ural 34% | Draw 29% | CSKA Moscow 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Ural 1.09 / CSKA Moscow 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Ural attack 0.829 / def 0.976 | CSKA Moscow attack 0.903 / def 0.868 | league avg home 1.518 / away 1.313 • Poisson stance: CSKA Moscow (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Ural xG
Expected Goals
1.16
CSKA Moscow xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ural vs CSKA Moscow kick off?
Ural vs CSKA Moscow kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 15 April 2023 at Ekaterinburg Arena.
What was the final score in Ural vs CSKA Moscow?
Ural 1 - 2 CSKA Moscow.
Where is Ural vs CSKA Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Ekaterinburg Arena.
What competition is Ural vs CSKA Moscow part of?
Ural vs CSKA Moscow is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Ural vs CSKA Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Ural a 34% chance of winning, CSKA Moscow a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making CSKA Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ural vs CSKA Moscow?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Ural and CSKA Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will Ural vs CSKA Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ural and CSKA Moscow?
Record (3 meetings): Ural 0W | Draws 1 | CSKA Moscow 2W.
What form are Ural and CSKA Moscow in?
Ural (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. CSKA Moscow (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ural's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against CSKA Moscow's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. The same calculation in reverse, CSKA Moscow's attack versus Ural's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
CSKA Moscow Win
34%
2.95
29%
3.47
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Ural xG
Total xG
2.25
1.16
CSKA Moscow xG
2.95
34%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
11%
9.37
12%
8.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 12.2 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ural vs CSKA Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Ural and CSKA Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Ural and 1.16 for CSKA Moscow, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Ural vs CSKA Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ural come into this having played 52 games, going 15W 13D 24L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L. The sample for Ural is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, CSKA Moscow sit at 1.75 PPG from 52 outings (27W 10D 15L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for CSKA Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
CSKA Moscow carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of Ural — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Ural's home form reads 7W 7D 12L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.08 PPG return.
Away from home, CSKA Moscow have taken 1.35 points per game from 26 outings (10W 5D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Ural are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; CSKA Moscow are on 1.58 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: CSKA Moscow in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ural
Blended
CSKA Moscow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ural and CSKA Moscow in coming into this match?
Ural have gone 15W 13D 24L in their last 52 games (1.12 PPG), while CSKA Moscow have gone 27W 10D 15L in their last 52 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ural at home or CSKA Moscow away?
CSKA Moscow's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ural at home: 1.08 PPG; CSKA Moscow away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Ural or CSKA Moscow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ural have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, CSKA Moscow in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Ural's record when hosting CSKA Moscow specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Ural
1
Draws
4
CSKA Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ural and CSKA Moscow?
From 6 meetings on record, Ural have won 1, CSKA Moscow have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ural and CSKA Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2024, when CSKA Moscow 2-0 Ural.
Who has won more matches between Ural and CSKA Moscow?
CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ural see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
CSKA Moscow see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ural 38%, CSKA Moscow 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Ural) and 42% (CSKA Moscow).
On the defensive side: CSKA Moscow in 31%; Ural have failed to score in 46% of games; CSKA Moscow in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ural home games / CSKA Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ural play CSKA Moscow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Ural's recent matches and 46% of CSKA Moscow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ural vs CSKA Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Ural's recent games and 42% of CSKA Moscow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as CSKA Moscow edge out Ural 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
CSKA Moscow beat Ural 1-2 at Ekaterinburg Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ural 1.09 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.16 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. CSKA Moscow outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ural attack 0.83 / defence 0.98 against CSKA Moscow attack 0.90 / defence 0.87, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ural 34% | Draw 29% | CSKA Moscow 37%, with CSKA Moscow to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ural 44%, CSKA Moscow 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ural's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, CSKA Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.12. That form edge translated into the three points. Ural (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.