Krylia Sovetov 0-0 Khimki – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Krylia Sovetov at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Krylia Sovetov vs Khimki encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Krylia Sovetov host Khimki at Solidarnost Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 15 April 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Krylia Sovetov have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Krylia Sovetov at Solidarnost Arena this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Khimki — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Khimki, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Khimki have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 3.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Krylia Sovetov have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Krylia Sovetov have won 1, Khimki 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Sep 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Krylia Sovetov in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Khimki in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Krylia Sovetov 52% versus Khimki 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Krylia Sovetov 44% | Khimki 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 1.51 xG and Khimki 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.763 / defence 0.925 | Khimki attack 0.894 / defence 1.305. League average goals — home 1.519 / away 1.332. Krylia Sovetov's attack strength of 0.763 is below the league average — the 1.51 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Khimki bring a strong defensive rating of 1.305 — this is suppressing Krylia Sovetov's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Krylia Sovetov games / 52 Khimki games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 47% | Draw 26% | Khimki 28%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Khimki 3.57. Krylia Sovetov hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Krylia Sovetov at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Krylia Sovetov offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Krylia Sovetov 50% | Khimki 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs Khimki | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Solidarnost Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Apr 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 47% | Draw 26% | Khimki 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Krylia Sovetov 1.51 / Khimki 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.763 / def 0.925 | Khimki attack 0.894 / def 1.305 | league avg home 1.519 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Krylia Sovetov (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Khimki xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs Khimki kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs Khimki kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 15 April 2023 at Solidarnost Arena.
What was the final score in Krylia Sovetov vs Khimki?
Krylia Sovetov 0 - 0 Khimki.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs Khimki being played?
The match is being played at Solidarnost Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs Khimki part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs Khimki is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs Khimki?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 47% chance of winning, Khimki a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Krylia Sovetov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs Khimki?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and Khimki will score (BTTS).
Will Krylia Sovetov vs Khimki have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Khimki?
Record (3 meetings): Krylia Sovetov 1W | Draws 1 | Khimki 1W.
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Khimki in?
Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Khimki (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Krylia Sovetov's attack at 0.76x the league average against Khimki's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Khimki's attack versus Krylia Sovetov's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Krylia Sovetov Win
47%
2.14
26%
3.90
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
2.61
1.10
Khimki xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
16%
6.44
6%
16.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.2 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs Khimki?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and Khimki expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 1.10 for Khimki, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs Khimki?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Krylia Sovetov come into this having played 52 games, going 18W 11D 23L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-W. The sample for Krylia Sovetov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Khimki sit at 0.87 PPG from 52 outings (10W 15D 27L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Khimki is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Krylia Sovetov on 1.25 PPG, Khimki on 0.87. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Krylia Sovetov's home form reads 9W 7D 9L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Khimki have taken 0.52 points per game from 25 outings (3W 4D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Krylia Sovetov come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Khimki are on 1.04 scored and 1.83 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
Khimki
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Khimki in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 18W 11D 23L in their last 52 games (1.25 PPG), while Khimki have gone 10W 15D 27L in their last 52 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Krylia Sovetov at home or Khimki away?
Krylia Sovetov's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Krylia Sovetov at home: 1.36 PPG; Khimki away: 0.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Nov 2021, when Krylia Sovetov won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Krylia Sovetov's record when hosting Khimki specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Krylia Sovetov
3
Draws
1
Khimki
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Khimki?
From 6 meetings on record, Krylia Sovetov have won 2, Khimki have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and Khimki last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2025, when Khimki 1-3 Krylia Sovetov.
Who has won more matches between Krylia Sovetov and Khimki?
Krylia Sovetov have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Khimki are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Krylia Sovetov 48%, Khimki 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Krylia Sovetov) and 68% (Khimki).
On the defensive side: Krylia Sovetov have failed to score in 28% of games; Khimki in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / Khimki away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Krylia Sovetov play Khimki?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Krylia Sovetov's recent matches and 60% of Khimki's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Krylia Sovetov vs Khimki usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Krylia Sovetov's recent games and 68% of Khimki's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Krylia Sovetov and Khimki tend to score early?
Krylia Sovetov have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Khimki in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Krylia Sovetov's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Krylia Sovetov and Khimki finished level at 0-0 at Solidarnost Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 1.51 xG and Khimki 1.10 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Krylia Sovetov fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Khimki landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 0.76 / defence 0.93 against Khimki attack 0.89 / defence 1.30, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 47% | Draw 26% | Khimki 28%, with Krylia Sovetov to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 44%, Khimki 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Khimki's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Krylia Sovetov 1.25 PPG, Khimki 0.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Khimki (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.