Torpedo Moskva 0-2 Krylia Sovetov – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Krylia Sovetov at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Torpedo Moskva vs Krylia Sovetov encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Luzhniki plays host to Torpedo Moskva versus Krylia Sovetov in Premier League, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Sunday 6 November 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Torpedo Moskva have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Torpedo Moskva, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Torpedo Moskva at Stadion Luzhniki this season: 1W 1D 5L from 7 home games — 0.57 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.57 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game.
Krylia Sovetov (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Krylia Sovetov have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Krylia Sovetov are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Torpedo Moskva 0W, Krylia Sovetov 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Jul 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Torpedo Moskva — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 60% of games.
Krylia Sovetov — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Torpedo Moskva 33% versus Krylia Sovetov 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Torpedo Moskva 33% | Krylia Sovetov 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Torpedo Moskva 0.97 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Torpedo Moskva attack 0.516 / defence 1.166 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.985 / defence 1.120. League average goals — home 1.685 / away 1.274. Torpedo Moskva's attack strength of 0.516 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 15 Torpedo Moskva games / 45 Krylia Sovetov games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Torpedo Moskva 24% | Draw 29% | Krylia Sovetov 47%. Fair-value odds: Torpedo Moskva 4.17 | Draw 3.45 | Krylia Sovetov 2.13. Krylia Sovetov hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Krylia Sovetov as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Krylia Sovetov if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Torpedo Moskva 43% | Krylia Sovetov 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Torpedo Moskva vs Krylia Sovetov | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadion Luzhniki • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Nov 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Torpedo Moskva 24% | Draw 29% | Krylia Sovetov 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Torpedo Moskva 0.97 / Krylia Sovetov 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Torpedo Moskva attack 0.516 / def 1.166 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.985 / def 1.120 | league avg home 1.685 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Krylia Sovetov (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Torpedo Moskva xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Krylia Sovetov xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Torpedo Moskva vs Krylia Sovetov kick off?
Torpedo Moskva vs Krylia Sovetov kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 6 November 2022 at Stadion Luzhniki.
What was the final score in Torpedo Moskva vs Krylia Sovetov?
Torpedo Moskva 0 - 2 Krylia Sovetov.
Where is Torpedo Moskva vs Krylia Sovetov being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Luzhniki.
What competition is Torpedo Moskva vs Krylia Sovetov part of?
Torpedo Moskva vs Krylia Sovetov is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Torpedo Moskva vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our statistical model gives Torpedo Moskva a 24% chance of winning, Krylia Sovetov a 47% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Krylia Sovetov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Torpedo Moskva vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Torpedo Moskva and Krylia Sovetov will score (BTTS).
Will Torpedo Moskva vs Krylia Sovetov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Torpedo Moskva and Krylia Sovetov?
Record (1 meetings): Torpedo Moskva 0W | Draws 1 | Krylia Sovetov 0W.
What form are Torpedo Moskva and Krylia Sovetov in?
Torpedo Moskva (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Torpedo Moskva's attacking strength (0.52x league average) is weighed against Krylia Sovetov's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.97. Flip it around — Krylia Sovetov's attack (0.98x) against Torpedo Moskva's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 15/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Krylia Sovetov Win
24%
4.20
29%
3.45
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Torpedo Moskva xG
Total xG
2.44
1.46
Krylia Sovetov xG
4.20
24%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
23%
4.32
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
6%
18.16
18%
5.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 12.8 | 9.4 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.1 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Torpedo Moskva vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Torpedo Moskva and Krylia Sovetov expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Torpedo Moskva and 1.46 for Krylia Sovetov, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Torpedo Moskva vs Krylia Sovetov?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 15 outings, Torpedo Moskva have picked up 0.40 PPG on a 1W 3D 11L record — D-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Torpedo Moskva is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Krylia Sovetov's form line: 4W 5D 6L from 15 games, 1.13 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-W. The sample for Krylia Sovetov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Krylia Sovetov are the form team by 0.73 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Torpedo Moskva.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Torpedo Moskva have posted 0.57 PPG from 7 outings (1W 1D 5L).
On the road, Krylia Sovetov have gone 1W 2D 4L from 7 away games — 0.71 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.13 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Krylia Sovetov's season.
Attack vs Defence
Torpedo Moskva are averaging 0.47 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Krylia Sovetov are on 1.13 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Krylia Sovetov in 60%.
Last 15 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Torpedo Moskva
Blended
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Torpedo Moskva and Krylia Sovetov in coming into this match?
Torpedo Moskva have gone 1W 3D 11L in their last 15 games (0.40 PPG), while Krylia Sovetov have gone 4W 5D 6L in their last 15 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Torpedo Moskva at home or Krylia Sovetov away?
Krylia Sovetov's away record (0.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Torpedo Moskva at home: 0.57 PPG; Krylia Sovetov away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Torpedo Moskva
1
Draws
1
Krylia Sovetov
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Torpedo Moskva and Krylia Sovetov?
From 2 meetings on record, Torpedo Moskva have won 0, Krylia Sovetov have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Torpedo Moskva and Krylia Sovetov last play each other?
They last met on 6 November 2022, when Torpedo Moskva 0-2 Krylia Sovetov.
Who has won more matches between Torpedo Moskva and Krylia Sovetov?
Krylia Sovetov have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Torpedo Moskva see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Torpedo Moskva 43%, Krylia Sovetov 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Torpedo Moskva) and 71% (Krylia Sovetov). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Torpedo Moskva have failed to score in 43% of games; Krylia Sovetov in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Torpedo Moskva home games / Krylia Sovetov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Torpedo Moskva play Krylia Sovetov?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Torpedo Moskva's games and 71% of Krylia Sovetov's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Torpedo Moskva vs Krylia Sovetov usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Torpedo Moskva's matches and 71% of Krylia Sovetov's.
Do Torpedo Moskva and Krylia Sovetov tend to score early?
Torpedo Moskva have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Krylia Sovetov in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Krylia Sovetov cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Torpedo Moskva.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Krylia Sovetov beat Torpedo Moskva 0-2 at Stadion Luzhniki, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Torpedo Moskva 0.97 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.46 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Torpedo Moskva fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Torpedo Moskva attack 0.52 / defence 1.17 against Krylia Sovetov attack 0.98 / defence 1.12, drawn from 15/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Torpedo Moskva 24% | Draw 29% | Krylia Sovetov 47%, with Krylia Sovetov to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Torpedo Moskva 33%, Krylia Sovetov 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Torpedo Moskva's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 60% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Krylia Sovetov arrived the stronger side — 1.13 PPG against 0.40. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.