Fakel 3-3 FC Krasnodar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Krasnodar at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fakel vs FC Krasnodar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov plays host to Fakel versus FC Krasnodar in Premier League, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Saturday 5 November 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fakel have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: D D D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Fakel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fakel's home record at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov: 1W 5D 1L from 7 Premier League appearances (1.14 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Krasnodar's overall Premier League record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Krasnodar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Krasnodar's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, FC Krasnodar are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fakel lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Jul 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Fakel — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 27% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
FC Krasnodar — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fakel 80% and FC Krasnodar 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fakel 53% | FC Krasnodar 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fakel 1.35 xG and FC Krasnodar 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fakel attack 0.894 / defence 1.160 | FC Krasnodar attack 1.122 / defence 0.889. League average goals — home 1.704 / away 1.239. Data: 15 Fakel games / 45 FC Krasnodar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fakel 31% | Draw 27% | FC Krasnodar 42%. Fair-value odds: Fakel 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | FC Krasnodar 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.35 / 1.61) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Krasnodar are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Krasnodar if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Fakel 71% | FC Krasnodar 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fakel vs FC Krasnodar | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fakel 31% | Draw 27% | FC Krasnodar 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Fakel 1.35 / FC Krasnodar 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Fakel attack 0.894 / def 1.160 | FC Krasnodar attack 1.122 / def 0.889 | league avg home 1.704 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: FC Krasnodar (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Fakel xG
Expected Goals
1.61
FC Krasnodar xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fakel vs FC Krasnodar kick off?
Fakel vs FC Krasnodar kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov.
What was the final score in Fakel vs FC Krasnodar?
Fakel 3 - 3 FC Krasnodar.
Where is Fakel vs FC Krasnodar being played?
The match is being played at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov.
What competition is Fakel vs FC Krasnodar part of?
Fakel vs FC Krasnodar is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Fakel vs FC Krasnodar?
Our statistical model gives Fakel a 31% chance of winning, FC Krasnodar a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC Krasnodar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fakel vs FC Krasnodar?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Fakel and FC Krasnodar will score (BTTS).
Will Fakel vs FC Krasnodar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fakel and FC Krasnodar?
Record (1 meetings): Fakel 0W | Draws 1 | FC Krasnodar 0W.
What form are Fakel and FC Krasnodar in?
Fakel (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-D-D-L. FC Krasnodar (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Fakel's attack at 0.89x the league average against FC Krasnodar's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Krasnodar's attack (1.12x) against Fakel's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from 15/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Krasnodar Win
31%
3.28
27%
3.64
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Fakel xG
Total xG
2.97
1.61
FC Krasnodar xG
3.28
31%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
20%
5.02
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
6%
16.44
11%
9.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 8.3 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.2 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.6 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fakel vs FC Krasnodar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Fakel and FC Krasnodar expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Fakel and 1.61 for FC Krasnodar, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Fakel vs FC Krasnodar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fakel come into this having played 15 games, going 1W 9D 5L for 0.80 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-D-L. The sample for Fakel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Krasnodar sit at 1.60 PPG from 15 outings (7W 3D 5L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for FC Krasnodar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Krasnodar carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of Fakel — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Fakel's home form reads 1W 5D 1L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Krasnodar have taken 1.57 points per game from 7 outings (3W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Krasnodar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fakel are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.87 conceded per game recently; FC Krasnodar are on 1.80 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fakel have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games; FC Krasnodar in 60%.
Last 15 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fakel
Blended
FC Krasnodar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fakel and FC Krasnodar in coming into this match?
Fakel have gone 1W 9D 5L in their last 15 games (0.80 PPG), while FC Krasnodar have gone 7W 3D 5L in their last 15 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fakel at home or FC Krasnodar away?
FC Krasnodar's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fakel at home: 1.14 PPG; FC Krasnodar away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Fakel or FC Krasnodar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fakel have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, FC Krasnodar in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
FC Krasnodar go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Krasnodar won 5-0 on 30 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fakel have gone 0W 3D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against FC Krasnodar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Fakel
4
Draws
3
FC Krasnodar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fakel and FC Krasnodar?
From 7 meetings on record, Fakel have won 0, FC Krasnodar have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Fakel and FC Krasnodar last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when FC Krasnodar 3-2 Fakel.
Who has won more matches between Fakel and FC Krasnodar?
FC Krasnodar have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fakel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
FC Krasnodar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fakel 71%, FC Krasnodar 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Fakel) and 57% (FC Krasnodar).
On the defensive side: FC Krasnodar in 43%; FC Krasnodar in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fakel home games / FC Krasnodar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fakel play FC Krasnodar?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Fakel's games and 57% of FC Krasnodar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fakel vs FC Krasnodar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Fakel's recent games and 57% of FC Krasnodar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fakel and FC Krasnodar tend to score early?
Fakel have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, FC Krasnodar in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fakel and FC Krasnodar share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov, Regular Season - 16, as Fakel and FC Krasnodar drew 3-3 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fakel 1.35 xG and FC Krasnodar 1.61 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Fakel beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Krasnodar outscored their 1.61 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fakel attack 0.89 / defence 1.16 against FC Krasnodar attack 1.12 / defence 0.89, drawn from 15/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fakel 31% | Draw 27% | FC Krasnodar 42%, with FC Krasnodar to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fakel 53%, FC Krasnodar 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fakel's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
FC Krasnodar's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Krasnodar arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.80. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Fakel (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Krasnodar (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.