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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Spartak Moscow and Zenit share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Lukoil Arena, Regular Season - 5, as Spartak Moscow and Zenit drew 2-2 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Spartak Moscow 1.28 xG and Zenit 1.22 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spartak Moscow attack 0.99 / defence 1.07 against Zenit attack 0.97 / defence 0.91, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Spartak Moscow 35% | Draw 32% | Zenit 32%, with Spartak Moscow to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spartak Moscow 59%, Zenit 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Spartak Moscow's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.

Zenit's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Spartak Moscow 1.79 PPG, Zenit 2.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Spartak Moscow (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Zenit (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights