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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Spartak Moscow edge out Rubin 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Spartak Moscow beat Rubin 2-1 at Lukoil Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Spartak Moscow 1.15 xG and Rubin 0.99 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Spartak Moscow beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spartak Moscow attack 1.26 / defence 1.12 against Rubin attack 0.82 / defence 0.68, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Spartak Moscow 39% | Draw 29% | Rubin 31%, with Spartak Moscow to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spartak Moscow 60%, Rubin 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Spartak Moscow's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Rubin's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Spartak Moscow 1.81 PPG, Rubin 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Spartak Moscow win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights