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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Spartak Moscow edge out FC Sochi 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Spartak Moscow beat FC Sochi 2-1 at Lukoil Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Spartak Moscow 2.31 xG and FC Sochi 1.08 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spartak Moscow attack 1.01 / defence 1.12 against FC Sochi attack 0.74 / defence 1.49, drawn from 36/6 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Spartak Moscow 64% | Draw 21% | FC Sochi 15%, with Spartak Moscow to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spartak Moscow 50%, FC Sochi 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Spartak Moscow's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.

FC Sochi's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Spartak Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.50. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights