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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Spartak Moscow edge out FC Orenburg 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Spartak Moscow beat FC Orenburg 1-0 at Lukoil Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Spartak Moscow 2.27 xG and FC Orenburg 1.28 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Spartak Moscow fell 1.3 short of their projected output. FC Orenburg landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spartak Moscow attack 1.12 / defence 1.00 against FC Orenburg attack 1.05 / defence 1.39, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Spartak Moscow 58% | Draw 22% | FC Orenburg 19%, with Spartak Moscow to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spartak Moscow 62%, FC Orenburg 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Spartak Moscow's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.

FC Orenburg's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Spartak Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 0.64. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Spartak Moscow (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. FC Orenburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.30 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights