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Dominant Spartak Moscow run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Nizhny Novgorod.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Spartak Moscow beat Nizhny Novgorod 3-0 at Lukoil Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Spartak Moscow 1.75 xG and Nizhny Novgorod 0.77 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Spartak Moscow beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spartak Moscow attack 1.08 / defence 1.08 against Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.59 / defence 1.12, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Spartak Moscow 59% | Draw 27% | Nizhny Novgorod 14%, with Spartak Moscow to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spartak Moscow 62%, Nizhny Novgorod 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Spartak Moscow's trading profile (39 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and duly kept one.

Nizhny Novgorod's trading profile (39 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Spartak Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 0.92. Form held, and they took the win. Spartak Moscow (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. Nizhny Novgorod (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights