🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Spartak Moscow defy the odds to beat Krylia Sovetov 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Spartak Moscow beat Krylia Sovetov 2-1 at Lukoil Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Spartak Moscow 1.72 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.72 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spartak Moscow attack 1.02 / defence 1.15 against Krylia Sovetov attack 1.21 / defence 1.14, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Spartak Moscow 37% | Draw 26% | Krylia Sovetov 37%, with Spartak Moscow to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spartak Moscow 60%, Krylia Sovetov 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Spartak Moscow's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.

Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Spartak Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.13. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights