🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Spartak Moscow run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Khimki.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Spartak Moscow beat Khimki 5-0 at Lukoil Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Spartak Moscow 2.05 xG and Khimki 0.91 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Spartak Moscow beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Khimki landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spartak Moscow attack 1.15 / defence 1.06 against Khimki attack 0.78 / defence 1.22, drawn from 59/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Spartak Moscow 62% | Draw 24% | Khimki 14%, with Spartak Moscow to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spartak Moscow 59%, Khimki 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Spartak Moscow's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time, and duly kept one.

Khimki's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Spartak Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Spartak Moscow (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Khimki (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 2.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights