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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Spartak Moscow and FC Rostov share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Spartak Moscow and FC Rostov finished level at 1-1 at Lukoil Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Spartak Moscow 1.38 xG and FC Rostov 1.07 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spartak Moscow attack 1.14 / defence 1.03 against FC Rostov attack 0.88 / defence 0.82, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Spartak Moscow 42% | Draw 31% | FC Rostov 27%, with Spartak Moscow to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spartak Moscow 63%, FC Rostov 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Spartak Moscow's trading profile (41 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.

FC Rostov's trading profile (41 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Spartak Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Spartak Moscow (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights