🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Dinamo Makhachkala defy the odds to beat Spartak Moscow 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dinamo Makhachkala beat Spartak Moscow 1-2 at Lukoil Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Spartak Moscow 2.24 xG and Dinamo Makhachkala 0.55 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Spartak Moscow fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Dinamo Makhachkala outscored their 0.55 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spartak Moscow attack 1.26 / defence 0.85 against Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.61 / defence 1.17, drawn from 53/23 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Spartak Moscow 74% | Draw 21% | Dinamo Makhachkala 6%, with Spartak Moscow to win its most likely call at 74%. Instead the game produced a Dinamo Makhachkala win, an outcome the model had rated at just 6% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spartak Moscow 61%, Dinamo Makhachkala 26%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Spartak Moscow's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 61% of the time, and conceded here.

Dinamo Makhachkala's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Spartak Moscow arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.04. Form was overturned, with Dinamo Makhachkala winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Spartak Moscow (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dinamo Makhachkala (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.36 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights