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Prediction vindicated as Spartak Moscow edge out CSKA Moscow 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Spartak Moscow beat CSKA Moscow 1-0 at Lukoil Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Spartak Moscow 1.30 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.04 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. CSKA Moscow landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spartak Moscow attack 1.08 / defence 0.94 against CSKA Moscow attack 1.01 / defence 0.90, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Spartak Moscow 40% | Draw 33% | CSKA Moscow 27%, with Spartak Moscow to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spartak Moscow 62%, CSKA Moscow 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Spartak Moscow's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.

CSKA Moscow's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Spartak Moscow 1.82 PPG, CSKA Moscow 2.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Spartak Moscow win broke the near-deadlock. Spartak Moscow (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights