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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Baltika run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Spartak Moscow.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Baltika beat Spartak Moscow 0-3 at Lukoil Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Spartak Moscow 1.67 xG and Baltika 0.80 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Spartak Moscow fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Baltika outscored their 0.80 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spartak Moscow attack 1.14 / defence 0.88 against Baltika attack 0.88 / defence 1.02, drawn from 31/1 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Spartak Moscow 55% | Draw 30% | Baltika 15%, with Spartak Moscow to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Baltika win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spartak Moscow 0%, Baltika 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Form vs Result

On form, Spartak Moscow arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Baltika winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Spartak Moscow managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Baltika scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights