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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Spartak Moscow cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Rubin.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Spartak Moscow beat Rubin 0-2 at Ak Bars Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rubin 1.67 xG and Spartak Moscow 1.20 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Rubin fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Spartak Moscow outscored their 1.20 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rubin attack 1.03 / defence 0.93 against Spartak Moscow attack 1.07 / defence 1.07, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rubin 47% | Draw 27% | Spartak Moscow 26%, with Rubin to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Spartak Moscow win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rubin 57%, Spartak Moscow 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rubin's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Spartak Moscow's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rubin 1.57 PPG, Spartak Moscow 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Spartak Moscow win broke the near-deadlock. Rubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Spartak Moscow (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights