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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Rubin defy the odds to beat Spartak Moscow 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rubin beat Spartak Moscow 2-1 at Ak Bars Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rubin 1.12 xG and Spartak Moscow 1.41 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Rubin beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rubin attack 1.02 / defence 1.04 against Spartak Moscow attack 1.12 / defence 0.85, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rubin 26% | Draw 34% | Spartak Moscow 40%, with Spartak Moscow to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Rubin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rubin 45%, Spartak Moscow 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rubin's trading profile (49 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Spartak Moscow's trading profile (49 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Spartak Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.39. Form was overturned, with Rubin winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Rubin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm. Spartak Moscow (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights