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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Rubin edge out FC Sochi 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rubin beat FC Sochi 2-1 at Ak Bars Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rubin 2.07 xG and FC Sochi 0.91 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rubin attack 1.17 / defence 1.01 against FC Sochi attack 0.71 / defence 1.30, drawn from 32/2 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Rubin 63% | Draw 24% | FC Sochi 14%, with Rubin to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 88% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rubin 75%, FC Sochi 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rubin's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.

FC Sochi's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Rubin arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights