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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Rubin cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over FC Orenburg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rubin beat FC Orenburg 4-2 at Ak Bars Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rubin 1.62 xG and FC Orenburg 0.71 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Rubin beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Orenburg outscored their 0.71 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rubin attack 0.95 / defence 0.81 against FC Orenburg attack 0.80 / defence 1.16, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rubin 57% | Draw 28% | FC Orenburg 14%, with Rubin to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rubin 48%, FC Orenburg 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rubin's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

FC Orenburg's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Rubin arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.85. That form edge translated into the three points. Rubin (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm. FC Orenburg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.76 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights