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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Rubin cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Krylia Sovetov.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rubin beat Krylia Sovetov 2-0 at Ak Bars Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rubin 1.54 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.35 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Krylia Sovetov landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rubin attack 0.92 / defence 0.94 against Krylia Sovetov attack 1.21 / defence 1.14, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rubin 39% | Draw 30% | Krylia Sovetov 31%, with Rubin to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rubin 55%, Krylia Sovetov 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rubin's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Rubin arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.08. That form edge translated into the three points. Rubin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights