Rubin 0-2 Krylia Sovetov – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rubin at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rubin vs Krylia Sovetov encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Krylia Sovetov make the trip to Ak Bars Arena to face Rubin in Premier League, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Friday 13 September 2024 at 18:15 UTC.
Form
Rubin (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Rubin have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rubin's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Ak Bars Arena this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Krylia Sovetov have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Krylia Sovetov have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Krylia Sovetov away from home this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Rubin's favour (1.40 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Rubin lead 1W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Apr 2024, ended 0–2 with Krylia Sovetov winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Rubin — key trading statistics (37 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Krylia Sovetov — key trading statistics (37 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rubin 49% versus Krylia Sovetov 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rubin 43% | Krylia Sovetov 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rubin 1.54 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rubin attack 1.014 / defence 1.202 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.803 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.245. Data: 37 Rubin games / 37 Krylia Sovetov games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rubin 45% | Draw 25% | Krylia Sovetov 30%. Fair-value odds: Rubin 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Krylia Sovetov 3.33. Rubin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rubin at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rubin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Rubin 60% | Krylia Sovetov 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rubin vs Krylia Sovetov | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Ak Bars Arena • Kick-off: Friday 13 Sep 2024, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rubin 45% | Draw 25% | Krylia Sovetov 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Rubin 1.54 / Krylia Sovetov 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Rubin attack 1.014 / def 1.202 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.803 / def 1.132 | league avg home 1.341 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: Rubin (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Rubin xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Krylia Sovetov xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rubin vs Krylia Sovetov kick off?
Rubin vs Krylia Sovetov kicked off at 18:15 on Friday 13 September 2024 at Ak Bars Arena.
What was the final score in Rubin vs Krylia Sovetov?
Rubin 0 - 2 Krylia Sovetov.
Where is Rubin vs Krylia Sovetov being played?
The match is being played at Ak Bars Arena.
What competition is Rubin vs Krylia Sovetov part of?
Rubin vs Krylia Sovetov is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Rubin vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our statistical model gives Rubin a 45% chance of winning, Krylia Sovetov a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Rubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rubin vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Rubin and Krylia Sovetov will score (BTTS).
Will Rubin vs Krylia Sovetov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rubin and Krylia Sovetov?
Record (4 meetings): Rubin 1W | Draws 1 | Krylia Sovetov 2W.
What form are Rubin and Krylia Sovetov in?
Rubin (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Rubin's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Krylia Sovetov's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. Flip it around — Krylia Sovetov's attack (0.80x) against Rubin's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rubin Win
45%
2.22
25%
3.97
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Rubin xG
Total xG
2.74
1.20
Krylia Sovetov xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
14%
7.38
6%
15.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.9 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rubin vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Rubin and Krylia Sovetov expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Rubin and 1.20 for Krylia Sovetov, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Rubin vs Krylia Sovetov?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 37 outings, Rubin have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 14W 10D 13L record — L-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Rubin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Krylia Sovetov's form line: 13W 8D 16L from 37 games, 1.27 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for Rubin against 1.27 for Krylia Sovetov. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Rubin have posted 1.35 PPG from 17 outings (6W 5D 6L).
On the road, Krylia Sovetov have gone 4W 2D 11L from 17 away games — 0.82 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.27 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Krylia Sovetov's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rubin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rubin are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Krylia Sovetov are on 1.41 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rubin
Early Season
Krylia Sovetov
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rubin and Krylia Sovetov in coming into this match?
Rubin have gone 14W 10D 13L in their last 37 games (1.41 PPG), while Krylia Sovetov have gone 13W 8D 16L in their last 37 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rubin at home or Krylia Sovetov away?
Rubin's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rubin at home: 1.35 PPG; Krylia Sovetov away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rubin have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Krylia Sovetov — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Rubin
3
Draws
3
Krylia Sovetov
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rubin and Krylia Sovetov?
From 8 meetings on record, Rubin have won 2, Krylia Sovetov have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rubin and Krylia Sovetov last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Krylia Sovetov 0-0 Rubin.
Who has won more matches between Rubin and Krylia Sovetov?
Krylia Sovetov have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rubin 53%, Krylia Sovetov 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Rubin) and 65% (Krylia Sovetov). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rubin have failed to score in 29% of games; Krylia Sovetov in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rubin home games / Krylia Sovetov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rubin play Krylia Sovetov?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Rubin's games and 59% of Krylia Sovetov's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rubin vs Krylia Sovetov usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Rubin's matches and 65% of Krylia Sovetov's.
Do Rubin and Krylia Sovetov tend to score early?
Rubin have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Krylia Sovetov in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Krylia Sovetov cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Rubin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Krylia Sovetov beat Rubin 0-2 at Ak Bars Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rubin 1.54 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.20 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Rubin fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rubin attack 1.01 / defence 1.20 against Krylia Sovetov attack 0.80 / defence 1.13, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rubin 45% | Draw 25% | Krylia Sovetov 30%, with Rubin to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Krylia Sovetov win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rubin 43%, Krylia Sovetov 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rubin's trading profile (37 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (37 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rubin 1.41 PPG, Krylia Sovetov 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Krylia Sovetov win broke the near-deadlock. Rubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.