Fakel 0-0 Nizhny Novgorod – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fakel at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fakel vs Nizhny Novgorod fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fakel and Nizhny Novgorod meet at Stadion Fakel in Premier League, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 14 September 2024 at 12:15 UTC.
Current Form
Fakel's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Fakel have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fakel at Stadion Fakel this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Fakel. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Nizhny Novgorod have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Nizhny Novgorod have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Nizhny Novgorod's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Fakel, 1.00 for Nizhny Novgorod — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Fakel, 1 for Nizhny Novgorod and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Mar 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Fakel — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 6% of games (home games); they fail to score in 51% of games.
Nizhny Novgorod — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fakel 32% versus Nizhny Novgorod 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Fakel 27% | Nizhny Novgorod 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fakel 1.20 xG and Nizhny Novgorod 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fakel attack 0.696 / defence 0.763 | Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.863 / defence 1.298. League average goals — home 1.329 / away 1.290. Fakel's attack strength of 0.696 is below the league average — the 1.20 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Nizhny Novgorod bring a strong defensive rating of 1.298 — this is suppressing Fakel's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Fakel's defence rating of 0.763 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 37 Fakel games / 37 Nizhny Novgorod games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fakel 44% | Draw 30% | Nizhny Novgorod 26%. Fair-value odds: Fakel 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Nizhny Novgorod 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fakel are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fakel if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.05 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Fakel 20% | Nizhny Novgorod 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fakel vs Nizhny Novgorod | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadion Fakel • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Sep 2024, 12:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fakel 44% | Draw 30% | Nizhny Novgorod 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 40% | xG Fakel 1.20 / Nizhny Novgorod 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Fakel attack 0.696 / def 0.763 | Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.863 / def 1.298 | league avg home 1.329 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: Fakel (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Fakel xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Nizhny Novgorod xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fakel vs Nizhny Novgorod kick off?
Fakel vs Nizhny Novgorod kicked off at 12:15 on Saturday 14 September 2024 at Stadion Fakel.
What was the final score in Fakel vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Fakel 0 - 0 Nizhny Novgorod.
Where is Fakel vs Nizhny Novgorod being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Fakel.
What competition is Fakel vs Nizhny Novgorod part of?
Fakel vs Nizhny Novgorod is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Fakel vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Our statistical model gives Fakel a 44% chance of winning, Nizhny Novgorod a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Fakel the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fakel vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Fakel and Nizhny Novgorod will score (BTTS).
Will Fakel vs Nizhny Novgorod have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fakel and Nizhny Novgorod?
Record (4 meetings): Fakel 2W | Draws 1 | Nizhny Novgorod 1W.
What form are Fakel and Nizhny Novgorod in?
Fakel (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Nizhny Novgorod (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Fakel's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Nizhny Novgorod's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. Flip it around — Nizhny Novgorod's attack (0.86x) against Fakel's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fakel Win
44%
2.26
30%
3.36
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Fakel xG
Total xG
2.05
0.85
Nizhny Novgorod xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
19%
5.29
8%
12.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 10.9 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.5 | 13.1 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fakel vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Fakel and Nizhny Novgorod expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Fakel and 0.85 for Nizhny Novgorod, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Fakel vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fakel come into this having played 37 games, going 8W 12D 17L for 0.97 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Fakel, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Nizhny Novgorod sit at 1.03 PPG from 37 outings (11W 5D 21L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Nizhny Novgorod, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.97 PPG for Fakel against 1.03 for Nizhny Novgorod. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Fakel's home form reads 5W 8D 5L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.28 PPG return.
Away from home, Nizhny Novgorod have taken 0.61 points per game from 18 outings (3W 2D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.03 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Nizhny Novgorod's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fakel come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fakel are averaging 0.68 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Nizhny Novgorod are on 1.03 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Defensively: Fakel have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fakel
Early Season
Nizhny Novgorod
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fakel and Nizhny Novgorod in coming into this match?
Fakel have gone 8W 12D 17L in their last 37 games (0.97 PPG), while Nizhny Novgorod have gone 11W 5D 21L in their last 37 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fakel at home or Nizhny Novgorod away?
Fakel's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fakel at home: 1.28 PPG; Nizhny Novgorod away: 0.61 PPG.
Have Fakel or Nizhny Novgorod been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fakel have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Nizhny Novgorod in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fakel have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Nizhny Novgorod — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Fakel
3
Draws
1
Nizhny Novgorod
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fakel and Nizhny Novgorod?
From 6 meetings on record, Fakel have won 2, Nizhny Novgorod have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fakel and Nizhny Novgorod last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2025, when Nizhny Novgorod 1-1 Fakel.
Who has won more matches between Fakel and Nizhny Novgorod?
Fakel have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fakel see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Nizhny Novgorod are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 22% (Fakel) and 44% (Nizhny Novgorod) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 6% for Fakel and 33% for Nizhny Novgorod.
On the defensive side: Fakel keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Fakel have failed to score in 50% of games; Nizhny Novgorod in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fakel home games / Nizhny Novgorod away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fakel play Nizhny Novgorod?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 22% of Fakel's recent matches and 44% of Nizhny Novgorod's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fakel vs Nizhny Novgorod usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 6% of Fakel's recent games and 33% of Nizhny Novgorod's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fakel and Nizhny Novgorod tend to score early?
Fakel have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Nizhny Novgorod in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Fakel's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Fakel, Regular Season - 8, as Fakel and Nizhny Novgorod drew 0-0 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fakel 1.20 xG and Nizhny Novgorod 0.85 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Fakel fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Nizhny Novgorod landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fakel attack 0.70 / defence 0.76 against Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.86 / defence 1.30, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fakel 44% | Draw 30% | Nizhny Novgorod 26%, with Fakel to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fakel 27%, Nizhny Novgorod 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fakel's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 51% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Nizhny Novgorod's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fakel 0.97 PPG, Nizhny Novgorod 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nizhny Novgorod (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.