FC Sochi 2-2 Ural – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Sochi at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as FC Sochi face Ural.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ural make the trip to Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht to face FC Sochi in Premier League (matchday 25). The match kicks off on Sunday 21 April 2024 at 17:15 UK time.
Form
FC Sochi (all games): 1W 6D 3L across their last 10 — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
FC Sochi's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Ural's record over their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Ural away from home: 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for FC Sochi against 0.70 for Ural. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for FC Sochi, 1 for Ural and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 22 Oct 2023, ended FC Sochi 4–1 Ural — a FC Sochi win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
FC Sochi — key trading statistics (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Ural — key trading statistics (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Sochi 43% versus Ural 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Sochi 57% | Ural 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Sochi 1.25 xG and Ural 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Sochi attack 0.974 / defence 1.003 | Ural attack 0.670 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.219. Ural's attack rating of 0.670 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.82. Data: built from FC Sochi's last 53 games and Ural's last 53.
Result probabilities: FC Sochi 45% | Draw 31% | Ural 23%. Fair-value odds: FC Sochi 2.20 | Draw 3.21 | Ural 4.28. FC Sochi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Sochi are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Sochi if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.07 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Sochi 40% (last 10 home games) | Ural 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Sochi vs Ural | Competition: Premier League, matchday 25 | Venue: Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht • Kick-off: Sunday 21 April 2024 at 17:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Sochi 45% | Draw 31% | Ural 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG FC Sochi 1.25 / Ural 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: FC Sochi attack 0.974 / def 1.003 | Ural attack 0.670 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: FC Sochi (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
FC Sochi xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Ural xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Sochi vs Ural FAQs
What time does FC Sochi vs Ural kick off?
FC Sochi vs Ural kicked off at 17:15 UK time on Sunday 21 April 2024 at Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht.
What was the final score in FC Sochi vs Ural?
FC Sochi 2 - 2 Ural.
Where is FC Sochi vs Ural being played?
The match is being played at Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht.
What competition is FC Sochi vs Ural part of?
FC Sochi vs Ural is a Premier League fixture (matchday 25) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win FC Sochi vs Ural?
Our statistical model gives FC Sochi a 45% chance of winning, Ural a 23% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making FC Sochi the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Sochi vs Ural?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both FC Sochi and Ural will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will FC Sochi vs Ural have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FC Sochi's attack at 0.97x the league average against Ural's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ural's attack (0.67x) against FC Sochi's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from FC Sochi's last 53 games and Ural's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Sochi Win
45%
2.20
31%
3.21
23%
4.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
FC Sochi xG
Total xG
2.07
0.82
Ural xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
4.28
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
20%
4.99
7%
14.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 10.3 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 12.9 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Sochi vs Ural Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Sochi vs Ural?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are FC Sochi and Ural expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for FC Sochi and 0.82 for Ural, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Sochi vs Ural?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Sochi's recent record stands at 15W 11D 27L from 53 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with D-D-D-D-W in the last five.
Ural, meanwhile, have gone 16W 11D 26L across 53 games — 1.11 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for FC Sochi against 1.11 for Ural. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FC Sochi have managed 11W 7D 8L from their last 26 home games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.06 PPG overall — FC Sochi are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Ural's away record stands at 6W 7D 13L across their last 26 away games, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Sochi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Sochi are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Ural are on 1.04 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Sochi
Blended
Ural
Blended
FC Sochi (Home) vs Ural (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Sochi
Blended
Ural
Blended
❓ FC Sochi vs Ural Form FAQs
What form are FC Sochi and Ural in coming into this match?
FC Sochi have gone 15W 11D 27L in their last 53 games (1.06 PPG), while Ural have gone 16W 11D 26L in their last 53 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Sochi at home or Ural away?
FC Sochi's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Sochi at home: 1.54 PPG; Ural away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between FC Sochi and Ural, the earliest from August 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 21 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Sochi won Ural 1-4 FC Sochi on 22 Oct 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Sochi have gone 1W 2D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Ural — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
FC Sochi
3
Draws
1
Ural
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Sochi vs Ural H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sochi and Ural?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Sochi have won 2, Ural have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Sochi and Ural last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 April 2024: FC Sochi 2-2 Ural.
Who has won more matches between FC Sochi and Ural?
FC Sochi have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Sochi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Ural are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Sochi 54%, Ural 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FC Sochi) and 46% (Ural).
On the defensive side: Ural in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Sochi home games / Ural away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Sochi vs Ural Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Sochi and Ural matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of FC Sochi's recent matches and 35% of Ural's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are FC Sochi and Ural matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of FC Sochi's recent games and 46% of Ural's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Sochi and Ural matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of FC Sochi's recent matches and 62% of Ural's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Sochi and Ural share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht, Regular Season - 25, as FC Sochi and Ural drew 2-2 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sochi 1.25 xG and Ural 0.82 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Ural outscored their 0.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sochi attack 0.97 / defence 1.00 against Ural attack 0.67 / defence 0.95, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Sochi 45% | Draw 31% | Ural 23%, with FC Sochi to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sochi 57%, Ural 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Sochi's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Ural's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Sochi 1.06 PPG, Ural 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ural (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.