Baltika 2-1 Krylia Sovetov – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Baltika at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Baltika vs Krylia Sovetov fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Krylia Sovetov travel to Rostec Arena to take on Baltika. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 April 2024, 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Baltika have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Baltika, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baltika's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Rostec Arena this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Krylia Sovetov stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Krylia Sovetov have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Baltika 0.90 PPG, Krylia Sovetov 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Baltika, 1 for Krylia Sovetov and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2023, ended 1–2 with Krylia Sovetov winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Baltika in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
Krylia Sovetov in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baltika 30% versus Krylia Sovetov 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baltika 30% | Krylia Sovetov 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baltika 1.11 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baltika attack 0.758 / defence 0.948 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.949 / defence 1.073. League average goals — home 1.371 / away 1.173. Baltika's attack strength of 0.758 is below the league average — the 1.11 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 23 Baltika games / 53 Krylia Sovetov games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baltika 35% | Draw 32% | Krylia Sovetov 32%. Fair-value odds: Baltika 2.86 | Draw 3.12 | Krylia Sovetov 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Baltika at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baltika offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Baltika 20% | Krylia Sovetov 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baltika vs Krylia Sovetov | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Rostec Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Apr 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baltika 35% | Draw 32% | Krylia Sovetov 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Baltika 1.11 / Krylia Sovetov 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Baltika attack 0.758 / def 0.948 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.949 / def 1.073 | league avg home 1.371 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Baltika (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Baltika xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Krylia Sovetov xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baltika vs Krylia Sovetov kick off?
Baltika vs Krylia Sovetov kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Rostec Arena.
What was the final score in Baltika vs Krylia Sovetov?
Baltika 2 - 1 Krylia Sovetov.
Where is Baltika vs Krylia Sovetov being played?
The match is being played at Rostec Arena.
What competition is Baltika vs Krylia Sovetov part of?
Baltika vs Krylia Sovetov is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Baltika vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our statistical model gives Baltika a 35% chance of winning, Krylia Sovetov a 32% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Baltika the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baltika vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Baltika and Krylia Sovetov will score (BTTS).
Will Baltika vs Krylia Sovetov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baltika and Krylia Sovetov?
Record (1 meetings): Baltika 0W | Draws 0 | Krylia Sovetov 1W.
What form are Baltika and Krylia Sovetov in?
Baltika (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Baltika's attack at 0.76x the league average against Krylia Sovetov's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Krylia Sovetov's attack versus Baltika's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baltika Win
35%
2.82
32%
3.11
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Baltika xG
Total xG
2.17
1.06
Krylia Sovetov xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
12%
8.12
11%
9.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 12.0 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.4 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baltika vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Baltika and Krylia Sovetov expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Baltika and 1.06 for Krylia Sovetov, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Baltika vs Krylia Sovetov?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 23 outings, Baltika have picked up 0.87 PPG on a 5W 5D 13L record — D-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Baltika is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Krylia Sovetov's form line: 10W 6D 7L from 23 games, 1.57 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-W. The sample for Krylia Sovetov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Krylia Sovetov are the form team by 0.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Baltika.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Baltika have posted 1.36 PPG from 11 outings (4W 3D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 0.87 PPG overall — Baltika are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Krylia Sovetov have gone 3W 2D 6L from 11 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.57 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Krylia Sovetov's season.
The Goals Picture
Baltika are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Krylia Sovetov are on 1.78 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Krylia Sovetov in 65%.
Last 23 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baltika
Blended
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baltika and Krylia Sovetov in coming into this match?
Baltika have gone 5W 5D 13L in their last 23 games (0.87 PPG), while Krylia Sovetov have gone 10W 6D 7L in their last 23 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baltika at home or Krylia Sovetov away?
Baltika's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baltika at home: 1.36 PPG; Krylia Sovetov away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Baltika and Krylia Sovetov runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Baltika have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Baltika's record when hosting Krylia Sovetov specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Baltika
1
Draws
1
Krylia Sovetov
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baltika and Krylia Sovetov?
From 5 meetings on record, Baltika have won 3, Krylia Sovetov have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Baltika and Krylia Sovetov last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Krylia Sovetov 0-2 Baltika.
Who has won more matches between Baltika and Krylia Sovetov?
Baltika have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Baltika are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baltika 27%, Krylia Sovetov 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Baltika) and 64% (Krylia Sovetov).
On the defensive side: Baltika keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Baltika have failed to score in 46% of games; Krylia Sovetov in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baltika home games / Krylia Sovetov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baltika play Krylia Sovetov?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Baltika's recent matches and 64% of Krylia Sovetov's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Baltika vs Krylia Sovetov usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Baltika's recent games and 64% of Krylia Sovetov's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baltika and Krylia Sovetov tend to score early?
Baltika have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Krylia Sovetov in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Baltika edge out Krylia Sovetov 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baltika beat Krylia Sovetov 2-1 at Rostec Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baltika 1.11 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.06 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Baltika beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baltika attack 0.76 / defence 0.95 against Krylia Sovetov attack 0.95 / defence 1.07, drawn from 23/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baltika 35% | Draw 32% | Krylia Sovetov 32%, with Baltika to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baltika 30%, Krylia Sovetov 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baltika's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did.
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Krylia Sovetov arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.87. Form was overturned, with Baltika winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Baltika (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.