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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Spartak Moscow edge out FC Sochi 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Spartak Moscow beat FC Sochi 2-3 at Fisht Olympic Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sochi 1.06 xG and Spartak Moscow 1.53 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. FC Sochi beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Spartak Moscow outscored their 1.53 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sochi attack 0.73 / defence 1.44 against Spartak Moscow attack 1.12 / defence 1.01, drawn from 18/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Sochi 26% | Draw 26% | Spartak Moscow 48%, with Spartak Moscow to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sochi 70%, Spartak Moscow 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Sochi's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Spartak Moscow's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Spartak Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.60. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Sochi (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Spartak Moscow (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights