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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Sochi cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FC Orenburg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Sochi beat FC Orenburg 3-1 at Fisht Olympic Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sochi 1.09 xG and FC Orenburg 1.39 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. FC Sochi beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sochi attack 0.82 / defence 1.39 against FC Orenburg attack 0.93 / defence 0.98, drawn from 27/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Sochi 29% | Draw 27% | FC Orenburg 44%, with FC Orenburg to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual FC Sochi win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sochi 66%, FC Orenburg 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Sochi's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

FC Orenburg's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Sochi 0.72 PPG, FC Orenburg 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Sochi win broke the near-deadlock. FC Sochi (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. FC Orenburg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights