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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FC Sochi edge out Nizhny Novgorod 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Sochi beat Nizhny Novgorod 2-1 at Fisht Olympic Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sochi 1.20 xG and Nizhny Novgorod 0.93 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. FC Sochi beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sochi attack 0.68 / defence 1.49 against Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.52 / defence 1.19, drawn from 10/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Sochi 40% | Draw 34% | Nizhny Novgorod 26%, with FC Sochi to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sochi 67%, Nizhny Novgorod 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Sochi's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Nizhny Novgorod's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Sochi 0.42 PPG, Nizhny Novgorod 0.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Sochi win broke the near-deadlock. FC Sochi (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.40 average — tighter than their form line. Nizhny Novgorod (home/away splits) scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights