🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Nizhny Novgorod defy the odds to beat FC Sochi 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nizhny Novgorod beat FC Sochi 1-2 at Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht, Relegation Round, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sochi 1.85 xG and Nizhny Novgorod 0.77 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. FC Sochi fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Nizhny Novgorod outscored their 0.77 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sochi attack 1.02 / defence 1.00 against Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.70 / defence 1.18, drawn from 30/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Sochi 61% | Draw 26% | Nizhny Novgorod 13%, with FC Sochi to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a Nizhny Novgorod win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sochi 50%, Nizhny Novgorod 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Sochi's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Nizhny Novgorod's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Sochi 0.80 PPG, Nizhny Novgorod 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nizhny Novgorod win broke the near-deadlock. Nizhny Novgorod (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights