FC Sochi 2-1 Krylia Sovetov – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Sochi at 44%, yet the head-to-head data favours Krylia Sovetov — this FC Sochi vs Krylia Sovetov fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Sochi host Krylia Sovetov at Fisht Olympic Stadium in Premier League (matchday 26). Kick-off is Tuesday 21 April 2026 at 16:30 UK time.
Form Guide
FC Sochi — last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
FC Sochi at home: 1W 1D 8L from their last 10 home games — 0.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Krylia Sovetov stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Krylia Sovetov have gone 0W 1D 9L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Sochi 0.70 PPG, Krylia Sovetov 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
Krylia Sovetov have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 7 of the 7 H2H matches we hold against 0 for FC Sochi.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Sep 2025, ended FC Sochi 0–2 Krylia Sovetov — a Krylia Sovetov win.
Krylia Sovetov have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 7 wins from 7 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Patterns
FC Sochi in-play and half-time data (last 27 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 92% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
Krylia Sovetov in-play and half-time data (last 27 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Sochi 56% versus Krylia Sovetov 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Sochi 67% | Krylia Sovetov 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Sochi 1.48 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Sochi attack 0.738 / defence 1.426 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.754 / defence 1.375. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.101. FC Sochi's attack rating of 0.738 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.48. Krylia Sovetov's defence rating of 1.375 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FC Sochi's projected output up. Krylia Sovetov's attack rating of 0.754 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.19. FC Sochi's defence rating of 1.426 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Krylia Sovetov's projected output up. Data: built from FC Sochi's last 25 games and Krylia Sovetov's last 55.
Result probabilities: FC Sochi 44% | Draw 26% | Krylia Sovetov 30%. Fair-value odds: FC Sochi 2.28 | Draw 3.89 | Krylia Sovetov 3.29. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Sochi as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Sochi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: FC Sochi 50% (last 10 home games) | Krylia Sovetov 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Sochi vs Krylia Sovetov | Competition: Premier League, matchday 26 | Venue: Fisht Olympic Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 April 2026 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Sochi 44% | Draw 26% | Krylia Sovetov 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG FC Sochi 1.48 / Krylia Sovetov 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: FC Sochi attack 0.738 / def 1.426 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.754 / def 1.375 | league avg home 1.455 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: FC Sochi (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
FC Sochi xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Krylia Sovetov xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Sochi vs Krylia Sovetov FAQs
What time does FC Sochi vs Krylia Sovetov kick off?
FC Sochi vs Krylia Sovetov kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Tuesday 21 April 2026 at Fisht Olympic Stadium.
What was the final score in FC Sochi vs Krylia Sovetov?
FC Sochi 2 - 1 Krylia Sovetov.
Where is FC Sochi vs Krylia Sovetov being played?
The match is being played at Fisht Olympic Stadium.
What competition is FC Sochi vs Krylia Sovetov part of?
FC Sochi vs Krylia Sovetov is a Premier League fixture (matchday 26) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win FC Sochi vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our statistical model gives FC Sochi a 44% chance of winning, Krylia Sovetov a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FC Sochi the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Sochi vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both FC Sochi and Krylia Sovetov will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC Sochi vs Krylia Sovetov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Sochi's attack rating (0.74) and Krylia Sovetov's defence rating (1.38), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Krylia Sovetov's attack versus FC Sochi's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC Sochi's last 25 games and Krylia Sovetov's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Sochi Win
44%
2.28
26%
3.89
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
FC Sochi xG
Total xG
2.66
1.19
Krylia Sovetov xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
13%
7.45
7%
14.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.2 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Sochi vs Krylia Sovetov Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Sochi vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are FC Sochi and Krylia Sovetov expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for FC Sochi and 1.19 for Krylia Sovetov, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Sochi vs Krylia Sovetov?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Sochi come into this having played 27 games, going 5W 3D 19L for 0.67 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-W.
On the other side, Krylia Sovetov sit at 0.89 PPG from 27 outings (5W 9D 13L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Sochi on 0.67 PPG, Krylia Sovetov on 0.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
FC Sochi's home form reads 1W 2D 10L across their last 13 home games, a 0.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Krylia Sovetov have taken 0.38 points per game from their last 13 away games (1W 2D 10L). That's a step down from their 0.89 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Krylia Sovetov's recent record.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Sochi are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 2.07 conceded per game recently; Krylia Sovetov are on 1.00 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Last 27 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Sochi
Blended
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
FC Sochi (Home) vs Krylia Sovetov (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Sochi
Blended
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
❓ FC Sochi vs Krylia Sovetov Form FAQs
What form are FC Sochi and Krylia Sovetov in coming into this match?
FC Sochi have gone 5W 3D 19L in their last 27 games (0.67 PPG), while Krylia Sovetov have gone 5W 9D 13L in their last 27 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Sochi at home or Krylia Sovetov away?
FC Sochi's home record (0.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Sochi at home: 0.38 PPG; Krylia Sovetov away: 0.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from August 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 21 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
FC Sochi's record when hosting Krylia Sovetov specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
FC Sochi
0
Draws
7
Krylia Sovetov
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Sochi vs Krylia Sovetov H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sochi and Krylia Sovetov?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Sochi have won 1, Krylia Sovetov have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Sochi and Krylia Sovetov last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 April 2026: FC Sochi 2-1 Krylia Sovetov.
Who has won more matches between FC Sochi and Krylia Sovetov?
Krylia Sovetov have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Sochi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Sochi 54%, Krylia Sovetov 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for FC Sochi and 62% for Krylia Sovetov. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Sochi have failed to score in 46% of games; Krylia Sovetov in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Sochi home games / Krylia Sovetov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Sochi vs Krylia Sovetov Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Sochi and Krylia Sovetov matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of FC Sochi's recent matches and 46% of Krylia Sovetov's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are FC Sochi and Krylia Sovetov matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of FC Sochi's matches and 62% of Krylia Sovetov's.
Do FC Sochi and Krylia Sovetov matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 92% of FC Sochi's recent matches and 85% of Krylia Sovetov's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Sochi edge out Krylia Sovetov 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Sochi beat Krylia Sovetov 2-1 at Fisht Olympic Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sochi 1.48 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.19 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sochi attack 0.74 / defence 1.43 against Krylia Sovetov attack 0.75 / defence 1.38, drawn from 25/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Sochi 44% | Draw 26% | Krylia Sovetov 30%, with FC Sochi to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sochi 67%, Krylia Sovetov 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Sochi's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Sochi 0.67 PPG, Krylia Sovetov 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Sochi win broke the near-deadlock. FC Sochi (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.77 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.