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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FC Sochi edge out Krylia Sovetov 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Sochi beat Krylia Sovetov 2-1 at Fisht Olympic Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sochi 1.48 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.19 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sochi attack 0.74 / defence 1.43 against Krylia Sovetov attack 0.75 / defence 1.38, drawn from 25/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Sochi 44% | Draw 26% | Krylia Sovetov 30%, with FC Sochi to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sochi 67%, Krylia Sovetov 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Sochi's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Sochi 0.67 PPG, Krylia Sovetov 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Sochi win broke the near-deadlock. FC Sochi (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.77 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights