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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FC Krasnodar edge out FC Sochi 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Krasnodar beat FC Sochi 1-2 at Fisht Olympic Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sochi 1.09 xG and FC Krasnodar 1.81 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sochi attack 0.80 / defence 1.51 against FC Krasnodar attack 1.12 / defence 0.89, drawn from 20/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Sochi 23% | Draw 23% | FC Krasnodar 54%, with FC Krasnodar to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sochi 73%, FC Krasnodar 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Sochi's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

FC Krasnodar's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Krasnodar arrived the stronger side — 2.23 PPG against 0.55. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights