FC Sochi 0-1 Dynamo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FC Sochi at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Sochi vs Dynamo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht plays host to FC Sochi versus Dynamo in Premier League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Sunday 19 September 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Sochi have collected 2.14 PPG across 7 Premier League outings this season: 5W 0D 2L. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.71 goals per game, with 0.71 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.71 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. FC Sochi have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Sochi's form when playing at home: 3W 0D 0L across 3 games at Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht this term (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.67 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.14 — FC Sochi are significantly better at Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht than their overall form suggests.
Dynamo (all games): 4W 1D 2L across 7 Premier League outings this term — 1.86 points per game. Last five: W L W D L. They are scoring at 1.57 per game and conceding 1.14. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Dynamo have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dynamo's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 1L across 4 road games this term (2.25 PPG). Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.14 for FC Sochi, 1.86 for Dynamo — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
FC Sochi half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games.
Dynamo half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Sochi 43% versus Dynamo 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Sochi 57% | Dynamo 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Sochi 1.61 xG and Dynamo 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Sochi attack 1.265 / defence 0.932 | Dynamo attack 0.928 / defence 1.099. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.296. FC Sochi carry an above-average attack strength of 1.265 — their λ of 1.61 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 7 FC Sochi games / 7 Dynamo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Sochi 47% | Draw 28% | Dynamo 25%. Fair-value odds: FC Sochi 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Dynamo 4.00. FC Sochi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Sochi are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Sochi if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: FC Sochi 33% | Dynamo 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Sochi vs Dynamo | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Sep 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Sochi 47% | Draw 28% | Dynamo 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG FC Sochi 1.61 / Dynamo 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: FC Sochi attack 1.265 / def 0.932 | Dynamo attack 0.928 / def 1.099 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.296 • Poisson stance: FC Sochi (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
FC Sochi xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Dynamo xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Sochi vs Dynamo kick off?
FC Sochi vs Dynamo kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 19 September 2021 at Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht.
What was the final score in FC Sochi vs Dynamo?
FC Sochi 0 - 1 Dynamo.
Where is FC Sochi vs Dynamo being played?
The match is being played at Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht.
What competition is FC Sochi vs Dynamo part of?
FC Sochi vs Dynamo is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win FC Sochi vs Dynamo?
Our statistical model gives FC Sochi a 47% chance of winning, Dynamo a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC Sochi the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Sochi vs Dynamo?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both FC Sochi and Dynamo will score (BTTS).
Will FC Sochi vs Dynamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sochi and Dynamo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Sochi and Dynamo in?
FC Sochi (all comps): 5W-0D-2L in 7 | 2.14 PPG | GF 1.71 / GA 0.71 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Dynamo (all comps): 4W-1D-2L in 7 | 1.86 PPG | GF 1.57 / GA 1.14 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FC Sochi's attack at 1.26x the league average against Dynamo's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dynamo's attack (0.93x) against FC Sochi's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Sochi Win
47%
2.12
28%
3.59
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
FC Sochi xG
Total xG
2.73
1.12
Dynamo xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
20%
5.01
Win to Nil
15%
6.51
5%
20.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.8 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Sochi vs Dynamo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are FC Sochi and Dynamo expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for FC Sochi and 1.12 for Dynamo, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Sochi vs Dynamo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Sochi's recent record stands at 5W 0D 2L from 7 games, a 2.14 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for FC Sochi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dynamo, meanwhile, have gone 4W 1D 2L across 7 games — 1.86 PPG, with W-L-W-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Dynamo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.14 PPG for FC Sochi against 1.86 for Dynamo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FC Sochi have managed 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — 3.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.14 PPG overall — FC Sochi are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Dynamo's away record stands at 2W 0D 1L across 3 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Sochi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Sochi are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game recently; Dynamo are on 1.57 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dynamo in 71%.
Last 7 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Sochi
Early Season
Dynamo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Sochi and Dynamo in coming into this match?
FC Sochi have gone 5W 0D 2L in their last 7 games (2.14 PPG), while Dynamo have gone 4W 1D 2L in their last 7 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Sochi at home or Dynamo away?
FC Sochi's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Sochi at home: 3.00 PPG; Dynamo away: 2.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Sochi won 1-5 on 21 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Sochi have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Dynamo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
FC Sochi
2
Draws
3
Dynamo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sochi and Dynamo?
From 8 meetings on record, FC Sochi have won 3, Dynamo have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Sochi and Dynamo last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Dynamo 2-0 FC Sochi.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Sochi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time.
Dynamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Sochi 33%, Dynamo 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for FC Sochi and 67% for Dynamo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Sochi keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Dynamo in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Sochi home games / Dynamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Sochi play Dynamo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of FC Sochi's recent matches and 67% of Dynamo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Sochi vs Dynamo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of FC Sochi's matches and 67% of Dynamo's.
Do FC Sochi and Dynamo tend to score early?
FC Sochi have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Dynamo in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dynamo defy the odds to beat FC Sochi 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dynamo beat FC Sochi 0-1 at Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sochi 1.61 xG and Dynamo 1.12 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC Sochi fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sochi attack 1.26 / defence 0.93 against Dynamo attack 0.93 / defence 1.10, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Sochi 47% | Draw 28% | Dynamo 25%, with FC Sochi to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Dynamo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sochi 57%, Dynamo 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Sochi's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dynamo's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Sochi 2.14 PPG, Dynamo 1.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dynamo win broke the near-deadlock. FC Sochi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.67 scoring average — below par going forward. Dynamo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.