FC Krasnodar 3-0 FC Sochi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Krasnodar at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Krasnodar vs FC Sochi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 9 as FC Krasnodar welcome FC Sochi to Stadion FK Krasnodar. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 September 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, FC Krasnodar have gone 4W 1D 3L from 8 outings — a 1.62 PPG return. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.75 goals per game, with 1.12 conceded. 3 clean sheets in 8 games (38%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for FC Krasnodar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Krasnodar at Stadion FK Krasnodar this season: 2W 0D 1L from 3 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
FC Sochi — All Games: 5W 0D 3L from 8 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.88 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.75. Defensively, 0.75 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Sochi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, FC Sochi have posted 2W 0D 2L from 4 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Krasnodar 1.62 PPG, FC Sochi 1.88 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
FC Krasnodar in-play and half-time data (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
FC Sochi in-play and half-time data (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Krasnodar 50% versus FC Sochi 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Krasnodar 50% | FC Sochi 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Krasnodar 1.17 xG and FC Sochi 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Krasnodar attack 0.999 / defence 1.080 | FC Sochi attack 0.785 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.108 / away 1.220. Data: 8 FC Krasnodar games / 8 FC Sochi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Krasnodar 38% | Draw 32% | FC Sochi 31%. Fair-value odds: FC Krasnodar 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | FC Sochi 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Krasnodar at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Krasnodar offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Krasnodar 33% | FC Sochi 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Krasnodar vs FC Sochi | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadion FK Krasnodar • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Sep 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Krasnodar 38% | Draw 32% | FC Sochi 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG FC Krasnodar 1.17 / FC Sochi 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: FC Krasnodar attack 0.999 / def 1.080 | FC Sochi attack 0.785 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.108 / away 1.220 • Poisson stance: FC Krasnodar (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
FC Krasnodar xG
Expected Goals
1.03
FC Sochi xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Krasnodar vs FC Sochi kick off?
FC Krasnodar vs FC Sochi kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 26 September 2021 at Stadion FK Krasnodar.
What was the final score in FC Krasnodar vs FC Sochi?
FC Krasnodar 3 - 0 FC Sochi.
Where is FC Krasnodar vs FC Sochi being played?
The match is being played at Stadion FK Krasnodar.
What competition is FC Krasnodar vs FC Sochi part of?
FC Krasnodar vs FC Sochi is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win FC Krasnodar vs FC Sochi?
Our statistical model gives FC Krasnodar a 38% chance of winning, FC Sochi a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making FC Krasnodar the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Krasnodar vs FC Sochi?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both FC Krasnodar and FC Sochi will score (BTTS).
Will FC Krasnodar vs FC Sochi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Krasnodar and FC Sochi?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Krasnodar and FC Sochi in?
FC Krasnodar (all comps): 4W-1D-3L in 8 | 1.62 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 1.12 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. FC Sochi (all comps): 5W-0D-3L in 8 | 1.88 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.75 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC Krasnodar's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against FC Sochi's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. The same calculation in reverse, FC Sochi's attack versus FC Krasnodar's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Krasnodar Win
38%
2.65
32%
3.16
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
FC Krasnodar xG
Total xG
2.21
1.03
FC Sochi xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
13%
7.46
9%
10.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 11.4 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.3 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Krasnodar vs FC Sochi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are FC Krasnodar and FC Sochi expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for FC Krasnodar and 1.03 for FC Sochi, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Krasnodar vs FC Sochi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 8 outings, FC Krasnodar have picked up 1.62 PPG on a 4W 1D 3L record — W-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for FC Krasnodar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Sochi's form line: 5W 0D 3L from 8 games, 1.88 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-L. The sample for FC Sochi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Krasnodar on 1.62 PPG, FC Sochi on 1.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, FC Krasnodar have posted 2.00 PPG from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L).
On the road, FC Sochi have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Krasnodar are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; FC Sochi are on 1.50 scored and 0.75 conceded.
Defensively: FC Krasnodar have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Krasnodar
Blended
FC Sochi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Krasnodar and FC Sochi in coming into this match?
FC Krasnodar have gone 4W 1D 3L in their last 8 games (1.62 PPG), while FC Sochi have gone 5W 0D 3L in their last 8 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Krasnodar at home or FC Sochi away?
FC Krasnodar's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Krasnodar at home: 2.00 PPG; FC Sochi away: 2.00 PPG.
Have FC Krasnodar or FC Sochi been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Krasnodar have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, FC Sochi in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: FC Krasnodar have taken the last 8 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Aug 2025, when FC Krasnodar won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Krasnodar's record when hosting FC Sochi specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
8
FC Krasnodar
0
Draws
0
FC Sochi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Krasnodar and FC Sochi?
From 8 meetings on record, FC Krasnodar have won 8, FC Sochi have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Krasnodar and FC Sochi last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when FC Sochi 1-2 FC Krasnodar.
Who has won more matches between FC Krasnodar and FC Sochi?
FC Krasnodar have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Krasnodar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
FC Sochi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Krasnodar 33%, FC Sochi 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (FC Krasnodar) and 67% (FC Sochi).
On the defensive side: FC Krasnodar keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; FC Krasnodar have failed to score in 33% of games; FC Sochi in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Krasnodar home games / FC Sochi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Krasnodar play FC Sochi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of FC Krasnodar's recent matches and 67% of FC Sochi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Krasnodar vs FC Sochi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of FC Krasnodar's recent games and 67% of FC Sochi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Krasnodar and FC Sochi tend to score early?
FC Krasnodar have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, FC Sochi in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Krasnodar run riot with a 3-0 hammering of FC Sochi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Krasnodar beat FC Sochi 3-0 at Stadion FK Krasnodar, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Krasnodar 1.17 xG and FC Sochi 1.03 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. FC Krasnodar beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Sochi landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Krasnodar attack 1.00 / defence 1.08 against FC Sochi attack 0.79 / defence 1.06, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Krasnodar 38% | Draw 32% | FC Sochi 31%, with FC Krasnodar to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Krasnodar 50%, FC Sochi 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Krasnodar's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
FC Sochi's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Krasnodar 1.62 PPG, FC Sochi 1.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Krasnodar win broke the near-deadlock. FC Krasnodar (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. FC Sochi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.