🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

FC Sochi and Akhmat share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Sochi and Akhmat finished level at 1-1 at Fisht Olympic Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sochi 1.55 xG and Akhmat 1.44 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sochi attack 0.96 / defence 1.35 against Akhmat attack 1.00 / defence 1.18, drawn from 29/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Sochi 40% | Draw 24% | Akhmat 35%, with FC Sochi to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sochi 68%, Akhmat 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Sochi's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Akhmat's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Akhmat arrived the stronger side — 1.26 PPG against 0.77. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Sochi (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights