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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Orenburg and Khimki share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadion Gazovik, Regular Season - 28, as FC Orenburg and Khimki drew 1-1 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Orenburg 1.58 xG and Khimki 0.96 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Orenburg attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Khimki attack 0.76 / defence 1.25, drawn from 57/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Orenburg 49% | Draw 32% | Khimki 20%, with FC Orenburg to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Orenburg 52%, Khimki 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Orenburg's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Khimki's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Orenburg 0.67 PPG, Khimki 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Khimki (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.15 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights