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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Nizhny Novgorod edge out FC Sochi 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nizhny Novgorod beat FC Sochi 2-1 at Sovcombank Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nizhny Novgorod 1.60 xG and FC Sochi 1.04 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.83 / defence 1.06 against FC Sochi attack 0.99 / defence 1.33, drawn from 49/19 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nizhny Novgorod 50% | Draw 26% | FC Sochi 24%, with Nizhny Novgorod to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nizhny Novgorod 52%, FC Sochi 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nizhny Novgorod's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.

FC Sochi's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nizhny Novgorod 0.81 PPG, FC Sochi 0.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nizhny Novgorod win broke the near-deadlock. Nizhny Novgorod (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights