Nizhny Novgorod 0-0 Krylia Sovetov – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Krylia Sovetov at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nizhny Novgorod vs Krylia Sovetov encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Nizhny Novgorod and Krylia Sovetov meet at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod in Premier League, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 28 November 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Nizhny Novgorod's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nizhny Novgorod, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod, Nizhny Novgorod have gone 1W 0D 6L this season (7 games, 0.43 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Krylia Sovetov (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Krylia Sovetov's away record: 3W 1D 4L from 8 road trips in Premier League this season (1.25 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.25 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Krylia Sovetov are 1.20 PPG clear of Nizhny Novgorod in recent Premier League fixtures (1.90 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Nizhny Novgorod have seen both teams score in 71% of their games, Krylia Sovetov in 62%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Nizhny Novgorod, 1 for Krylia Sovetov and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2021, ended 0–2 with Krylia Sovetov winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Nizhny Novgorod goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Krylia Sovetov goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nizhny Novgorod 73% and Krylia Sovetov 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nizhny Novgorod 60% | Krylia Sovetov 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nizhny Novgorod 1.04 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.766 / defence 1.647 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.837 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.108. Nizhny Novgorod's attack strength of 0.766 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 15 Nizhny Novgorod games / 15 Krylia Sovetov games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nizhny Novgorod 25% | Draw 27% | Krylia Sovetov 48%. Fair-value odds: Nizhny Novgorod 4.00 | Draw 3.70 | Krylia Sovetov 2.08. Krylia Sovetov hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Krylia Sovetov as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Krylia Sovetov if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Nizhny Novgorod 71% | Krylia Sovetov 62% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nizhny Novgorod vs Krylia Sovetov | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadion Nizhny Novgorod • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nizhny Novgorod 25% | Draw 27% | Krylia Sovetov 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Nizhny Novgorod 1.04 / Krylia Sovetov 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.766 / def 1.647 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.837 / def 1.090 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.108 • Poisson stance: Krylia Sovetov (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Nizhny Novgorod xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Krylia Sovetov xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nizhny Novgorod vs Krylia Sovetov kick off?
Nizhny Novgorod vs Krylia Sovetov kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod.
What was the final score in Nizhny Novgorod vs Krylia Sovetov?
Nizhny Novgorod 0 - 0 Krylia Sovetov.
Where is Nizhny Novgorod vs Krylia Sovetov being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod.
What competition is Nizhny Novgorod vs Krylia Sovetov part of?
Nizhny Novgorod vs Krylia Sovetov is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Nizhny Novgorod vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our statistical model gives Nizhny Novgorod a 25% chance of winning, Krylia Sovetov a 48% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Krylia Sovetov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nizhny Novgorod vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Nizhny Novgorod and Krylia Sovetov will score (BTTS).
Will Nizhny Novgorod vs Krylia Sovetov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nizhny Novgorod and Krylia Sovetov?
Record (1 meetings): Nizhny Novgorod 0W | Draws 0 | Krylia Sovetov 1W.
What form are Nizhny Novgorod and Krylia Sovetov in?
Nizhny Novgorod (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Nizhny Novgorod's attack rating (0.77) and Krylia Sovetov's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Krylia Sovetov's attack (0.84x) against Nizhny Novgorod's defence (1.65x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.1%), 1-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Krylia Sovetov Win
25%
3.99
27%
3.69
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Nizhny Novgorod xG
Total xG
2.57
1.53
Krylia Sovetov xG
3.99
25%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
22%
4.61
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
5%
18.40
17%
5.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 11.7 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.3 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nizhny Novgorod vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Nizhny Novgorod and Krylia Sovetov expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Nizhny Novgorod and 1.53 for Krylia Sovetov, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Nizhny Novgorod vs Krylia Sovetov?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Nizhny Novgorod come into this having played 15 games, going 4W 2D 9L for 0.93 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Nizhny Novgorod is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Krylia Sovetov sit at 1.53 PPG from 15 outings (7W 2D 6L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Krylia Sovetov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Krylia Sovetov carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Nizhny Novgorod — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Nizhny Novgorod's home form reads 1W 0D 6L across 7 games on their own ground, a 0.43 PPG return. That actually lags their 0.93 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Krylia Sovetov have taken 1.43 points per game from 7 outings (3W 1D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Krylia Sovetov come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nizhny Novgorod are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game recently; Krylia Sovetov are on 1.33 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nizhny Novgorod have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 15 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nizhny Novgorod
Blended
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nizhny Novgorod and Krylia Sovetov in coming into this match?
Nizhny Novgorod have gone 4W 2D 9L in their last 15 games (0.93 PPG), while Krylia Sovetov have gone 7W 2D 6L in their last 15 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nizhny Novgorod at home or Krylia Sovetov away?
Krylia Sovetov's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nizhny Novgorod at home: 0.43 PPG; Krylia Sovetov away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Nizhny Novgorod or Krylia Sovetov been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nizhny Novgorod have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Krylia Sovetov in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Nizhny Novgorod won 5-2 on 12 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nizhny Novgorod have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Krylia Sovetov — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Nizhny Novgorod
2
Draws
4
Krylia Sovetov
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nizhny Novgorod and Krylia Sovetov?
From 10 meetings on record, Nizhny Novgorod have won 4, Krylia Sovetov have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nizhny Novgorod and Krylia Sovetov last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Nizhny Novgorod 3-0 Krylia Sovetov.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nizhny Novgorod are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nizhny Novgorod 71%, Krylia Sovetov 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Nizhny Novgorod) and 43% (Krylia Sovetov). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nizhny Novgorod home games / Krylia Sovetov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nizhny Novgorod play Krylia Sovetov?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Nizhny Novgorod's games and 57% of Krylia Sovetov's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nizhny Novgorod vs Krylia Sovetov usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Nizhny Novgorod's matches and 43% of Krylia Sovetov's.
Do Nizhny Novgorod and Krylia Sovetov tend to score early?
Nizhny Novgorod have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Krylia Sovetov in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Nizhny Novgorod's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod, Regular Season - 16, as Nizhny Novgorod and Krylia Sovetov drew 0-0 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nizhny Novgorod 1.04 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.53 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Nizhny Novgorod fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Krylia Sovetov landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.77 / defence 1.65 against Krylia Sovetov attack 0.84 / defence 1.09, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nizhny Novgorod 25% | Draw 27% | Krylia Sovetov 48%, with Krylia Sovetov to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nizhny Novgorod 60%, Krylia Sovetov 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nizhny Novgorod's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Krylia Sovetov arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Nizhny Novgorod (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.