CSKA Moscow 0-2 Zenit – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates CSKA Moscow at 37%, yet in-form Zenit provide a compelling counter-argument — this CSKA Moscow vs Zenit fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 16 as CSKA Moscow welcome Zenit to VEB Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 28 November 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, CSKA Moscow stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
CSKA Moscow's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 1L across 7 games at VEB Arena this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 0.43 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 7 home games (71%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at VEB Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — CSKA Moscow are significantly better at VEB Arena than their overall form suggests.
Zenit — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Zenit, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Zenit have gone 3W 3D 1L from 7 away fixtures this term (1.71 PPG). They are averaging 1.86 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 86% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Zenit's 2.20 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of CSKA Moscow's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, CSKA Moscow have won 0, Zenit 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2021, ended 0–1 with Zenit winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
CSKA Moscow trading profile (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 29% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Zenit trading profile (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — CSKA Moscow 40% and Zenit 87% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (CSKA Moscow 40% | Zenit 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects CSKA Moscow 1.08 xG and Zenit 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: CSKA Moscow attack 0.807 / defence 0.855 | Zenit attack 0.997 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.239 / away 1.113. Data: 15 CSKA Moscow games / 15 Zenit games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: CSKA Moscow 37% | Draw 33% | Zenit 30%. Fair-value odds: CSKA Moscow 2.70 | Draw 3.03 | Zenit 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is CSKA Moscow at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Zenit (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on CSKA Moscow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.03 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: CSKA Moscow 29% | Zenit 86%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: CSKA Moscow vs Zenit | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: VEB Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: CSKA Moscow 37% | Draw 33% | Zenit 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 42% | xG CSKA Moscow 1.08 / Zenit 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: CSKA Moscow attack 0.807 / def 0.855 | Zenit attack 0.997 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.239 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: CSKA Moscow (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
CSKA Moscow xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Zenit xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does CSKA Moscow vs Zenit kick off?
CSKA Moscow vs Zenit kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at VEB Arena.
What was the final score in CSKA Moscow vs Zenit?
CSKA Moscow 0 - 2 Zenit.
Where is CSKA Moscow vs Zenit being played?
The match is being played at VEB Arena.
What competition is CSKA Moscow vs Zenit part of?
CSKA Moscow vs Zenit is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win CSKA Moscow vs Zenit?
Our statistical model gives CSKA Moscow a 37% chance of winning, Zenit a 30% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making CSKA Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in CSKA Moscow vs Zenit?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both CSKA Moscow and Zenit will score (BTTS).
Will CSKA Moscow vs Zenit have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between CSKA Moscow and Zenit?
Record (1 meetings): CSKA Moscow 0W | Draws 0 | Zenit 1W.
What form are CSKA Moscow and Zenit in?
CSKA Moscow (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Zenit (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
CSKA Moscow's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Zenit's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. The same calculation in reverse, Zenit's attack versus CSKA Moscow's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
CSKA Moscow Win
37%
2.69
33%
3.06
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
CSKA Moscow xG
Total xG
2.03
0.95
Zenit xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
14%
6.95
10%
9.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 12.4 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for CSKA Moscow vs Zenit?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are CSKA Moscow and Zenit expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for CSKA Moscow and 0.95 for Zenit, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for CSKA Moscow vs Zenit?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
CSKA Moscow come into this having played 15 games, going 7W 3D 5L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-D. The sample for CSKA Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Zenit sit at 2.20 PPG from 15 outings (10W 3D 2L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Zenit is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zenit carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of CSKA Moscow — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
CSKA Moscow's home form reads 4W 2D 1L across 7 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Zenit have taken 1.71 points per game from 7 outings (3W 3D 1L). That's a step down from their 2.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Zenit's season.
The Goals Picture
CSKA Moscow are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Zenit are on 2.60 scored and 1.13 conceded. Zenit's attacking output running into CSKA Moscow's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Zenit in 87%.
Defensively: CSKA Moscow have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
CSKA Moscow
Blended
Zenit
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are CSKA Moscow and Zenit in coming into this match?
CSKA Moscow have gone 7W 3D 5L in their last 15 games (1.60 PPG), while Zenit have gone 10W 3D 2L in their last 15 (2.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — CSKA Moscow at home or Zenit away?
CSKA Moscow's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — CSKA Moscow at home: 2.00 PPG; Zenit away: 1.71 PPG.
Have CSKA Moscow or Zenit been keeping clean sheets recently?
CSKA Moscow have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Zenit in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between CSKA Moscow and Zenit runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
CSKA Moscow's record when hosting Zenit specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
CSKA Moscow
3
Draws
5
Zenit
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between CSKA Moscow and Zenit?
From 10 meetings on record, CSKA Moscow have won 2, Zenit have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did CSKA Moscow and Zenit last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when CSKA Moscow 1-3 Zenit.
Who has won more matches between CSKA Moscow and Zenit?
Zenit have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
CSKA Moscow tend to start slowly — only 29% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Zenit see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — CSKA Moscow 29%, Zenit 86% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (CSKA Moscow) and 57% (Zenit).
On the defensive side: CSKA Moscow keep a clean sheet in 71% of their matches; CSKA Moscow have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = CSKA Moscow home games / Zenit away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when CSKA Moscow play Zenit?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 29% of CSKA Moscow's games and 86% of Zenit's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is CSKA Moscow vs Zenit usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of CSKA Moscow's recent games and 57% of Zenit's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do CSKA Moscow and Zenit tend to score early?
CSKA Moscow have had a goal before half-time in 29% of their recent matches, Zenit in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zenit cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over CSKA Moscow.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zenit beat CSKA Moscow 0-2 at VEB Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting CSKA Moscow 1.08 xG and Zenit 0.95 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. CSKA Moscow fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Zenit outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of CSKA Moscow attack 0.81 / defence 0.85 against Zenit attack 1.00 / defence 1.09, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it CSKA Moscow 37% | Draw 33% | Zenit 30%, with CSKA Moscow to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Zenit win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (CSKA Moscow 40%, Zenit 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Zenit's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 87% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Zenit arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.60. The form guide was vindicated by the result. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Zenit (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.