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Dominant Nizhny Novgorod run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Krylia Sovetov.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nizhny Novgorod beat Krylia Sovetov 3-0 at Sovcombank Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nizhny Novgorod 1.75 xG and Krylia Sovetov 0.82 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Nizhny Novgorod beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Krylia Sovetov landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.85 / defence 1.04 against Krylia Sovetov attack 0.77 / defence 1.36, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nizhny Novgorod 59% | Draw 23% | Krylia Sovetov 17%, with Nizhny Novgorod to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nizhny Novgorod 54%, Krylia Sovetov 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nizhny Novgorod's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.

Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nizhny Novgorod 0.94 PPG, Krylia Sovetov 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nizhny Novgorod win broke the near-deadlock. Nizhny Novgorod (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights