🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant FC Krasnodar run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Nizhny Novgorod.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Krasnodar beat Nizhny Novgorod 0-3 at Ak Bars Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nizhny Novgorod 1.47 xG and FC Krasnodar 1.30 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Nizhny Novgorod fell 1.5 short of their projected output. FC Krasnodar outscored their 1.30 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.00 / defence 1.09 against FC Krasnodar attack 1.16 / defence 0.96, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nizhny Novgorod 38% | Draw 31% | FC Krasnodar 31%, with Nizhny Novgorod to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual FC Krasnodar win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nizhny Novgorod 57%, FC Krasnodar 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nizhny Novgorod's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

FC Krasnodar's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Krasnodar arrived the stronger side — 2.23 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Nizhny Novgorod (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Krasnodar (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights