🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Nizhny Novgorod and Fakel share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod, Regular Season - 29, as Nizhny Novgorod and Fakel drew 1-1 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nizhny Novgorod 1.80 xG and Fakel 0.86 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Nizhny Novgorod fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.02 / defence 1.18 against Fakel attack 0.68 / defence 1.17, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nizhny Novgorod 58% | Draw 26% | Fakel 16%, with Nizhny Novgorod to win its most likely call at 58%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nizhny Novgorod 48%, Fakel 26%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nizhny Novgorod's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Fakel's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nizhny Novgorod 1.00 PPG, Fakel 0.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights