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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Nizhny Novgorod cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Dinamo Makhachkala.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nizhny Novgorod beat Dinamo Makhachkala 2-0 at Mordovia Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nizhny Novgorod 1.39 xG and Dinamo Makhachkala 1.26 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Dinamo Makhachkala landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.98 / defence 1.30 against Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.80 / defence 0.95, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nizhny Novgorod 38% | Draw 30% | Dinamo Makhachkala 32%, with Nizhny Novgorod to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nizhny Novgorod 56%, Dinamo Makhachkala 26%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nizhny Novgorod's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.

Dinamo Makhachkala's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nizhny Novgorod 0.88 PPG, Dinamo Makhachkala 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nizhny Novgorod win broke the near-deadlock. Nizhny Novgorod (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights