Nizhny Novgorod 0-0 Baltika – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Nizhny Novgorod at 66% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nizhny Novgorod vs Baltika encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Nizhny Novgorod welcome Baltika to Stadion Nizhny Novgorod in Premier League (matchday 15). Kick-off is Sunday 12 November 2023 at 11:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Nizhny Novgorod have gone 5W 1D 4L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Nizhny Novgorod have posted 8W 0D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Nizhny Novgorod are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Baltika — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Baltika's form when playing away from home: 0W 0D 7L across their last 7 road games (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.57 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On current form, Nizhny Novgorod have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Nizhny Novgorod in-play and half-time data (last 14 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Baltika in-play and half-time data (last 14 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nizhny Novgorod 29% versus Baltika 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Nizhny Novgorod 21% | Baltika 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nizhny Novgorod 1.78 xG and Baltika 0.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.027 / defence 0.750 | Baltika attack 0.672 / defence 1.153. League average goals — home 1.502 / away 1.097. Baltika's attack rating of 0.672 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.55. Nizhny Novgorod have a tight defence (rating 0.750), which is pulling Baltika's projected output down. Data: built from Nizhny Novgorod's last 44 games and Baltika's last 14.
Result probabilities: Nizhny Novgorod 66% | Draw 23% | Baltika 10%. Fair-value odds: Nizhny Novgorod 1.50 | Draw 4.29 | Baltika 9.81. The model has a clear lean to Nizhny Novgorod (66%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 36% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 64% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Nizhny Novgorod as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 59% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Nizhny Novgorod 20% (last 10 home games) | Baltika 43% (last 7 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nizhny Novgorod vs Baltika | Competition: Premier League, matchday 15 | Venue: Stadion Nizhny Novgorod • Kick-off: Sunday 12 November 2023 at 11:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nizhny Novgorod 66% | Draw 23% | Baltika 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 36% (No 64%) | xG Nizhny Novgorod 1.78 / Baltika 0.55 • Poisson strength factors: Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.027 / def 0.750 | Baltika attack 0.672 / def 1.153 | league avg home 1.502 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Nizhny Novgorod (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Nizhny Novgorod xG
Expected Goals
0.55
Baltika xG
36%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Nizhny Novgorod vs Baltika FAQs
What time does Nizhny Novgorod vs Baltika kick off?
Nizhny Novgorod vs Baltika kicked off at 11:00 UK time on Sunday 12 November 2023 at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod.
What was the final score in Nizhny Novgorod vs Baltika?
Nizhny Novgorod 0 - 0 Baltika.
Where is Nizhny Novgorod vs Baltika being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod.
What competition is Nizhny Novgorod vs Baltika part of?
Nizhny Novgorod vs Baltika is a Premier League fixture (matchday 15) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Nizhny Novgorod vs Baltika?
Our statistical model gives Nizhny Novgorod a 66% chance of winning, Baltika a 10% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Nizhny Novgorod the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nizhny Novgorod vs Baltika?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Nizhny Novgorod and Baltika will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (64%).
Will Nizhny Novgorod vs Baltika have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Nizhny Novgorod's attack rating (1.03) and Baltika's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.78 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Baltika's attack versus Nizhny Novgorod's defence, projects 0.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Nizhny Novgorod's last 44 games and Baltika's last 14 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (15.4%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nizhny Novgorod Win
66%
1.50
23%
4.29
10%
9.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
15.4%
Home win
0 – 0
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Nizhny Novgorod xG
Total xG
2.33
0.55
Baltika xG
1.50
66%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
9.81
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.78
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
58%
1.74
17%
5.92
Win to Nil
38%
2.61
2%
58.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 17.3 | 9.6 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 15.4 | 8.5 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Nizhny Novgorod vs Baltika Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Nizhny Novgorod vs Baltika?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Nizhny Novgorod and Baltika expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Nizhny Novgorod and 0.55 for Baltika, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Nizhny Novgorod vs Baltika?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nizhny Novgorod's recent record stands at 6W 2D 6L from 14 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five.
Baltika, meanwhile, have gone 3W 2D 9L across 14 games — 0.79 PPG, with L-W-D-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Nizhny Novgorod by 0.64 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Baltika heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Nizhny Novgorod have managed 6W 0D 1L from their last 7 home games — 2.57 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.43 PPG overall — Nizhny Novgorod are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Baltika's away record stands at 0W 0D 7L across their last 7 away games, a 0.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.79 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Baltika's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nizhny Novgorod come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Nizhny Novgorod are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Baltika are on 0.86 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nizhny Novgorod have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Defensively: Nizhny Novgorod have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nizhny Novgorod
Blended
Baltika
Blended
Nizhny Novgorod (Home) vs Baltika (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Nizhny Novgorod
Blended
Baltika
Blended
❓ Nizhny Novgorod vs Baltika Form FAQs
What form are Nizhny Novgorod and Baltika in coming into this match?
Nizhny Novgorod have gone 6W 2D 6L in their last 14 games (1.43 PPG), while Baltika have gone 3W 2D 9L in their last 14 (0.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nizhny Novgorod at home or Baltika away?
Nizhny Novgorod's home record (2.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nizhny Novgorod at home: 2.57 PPG; Baltika away: 0.00 PPG.
Have Nizhny Novgorod or Baltika been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nizhny Novgorod have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Baltika in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from November 2023. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 11 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Nizhny Novgorod's record when hosting Baltika specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Nizhny Novgorod
3
Draws
1
Baltika
Recent Meetings
❓ Nizhny Novgorod vs Baltika H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Nizhny Novgorod and Baltika?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Nizhny Novgorod have won 0, Baltika have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Nizhny Novgorod and Baltika last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 April 2026: Baltika 2-2 Nizhny Novgorod.
Who has won more matches between Nizhny Novgorod and Baltika?
Baltika have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nizhny Novgorod are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Baltika see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nizhny Novgorod 29%, Baltika 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Nizhny Novgorod) and 43% (Baltika).
On the defensive side: Nizhny Novgorod keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Baltika in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nizhny Novgorod home games / Baltika away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Nizhny Novgorod vs Baltika Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Nizhny Novgorod and Baltika matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Nizhny Novgorod's recent matches and 43% of Baltika's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Nizhny Novgorod and Baltika matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Nizhny Novgorod's recent games and 43% of Baltika's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nizhny Novgorod and Baltika matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Nizhny Novgorod's recent matches and 57% of Baltika's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Nizhny Novgorod's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nizhny Novgorod and Baltika finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nizhny Novgorod 1.78 xG and Baltika 0.55 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Nizhny Novgorod fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.03 / defence 0.75 against Baltika attack 0.67 / defence 1.15, drawn from 44/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nizhny Novgorod 66% | Draw 23% | Baltika 10%, with Nizhny Novgorod to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nizhny Novgorod 21%, Baltika 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nizhny Novgorod's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Baltika's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Nizhny Novgorod arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.79. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Nizhny Novgorod (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward. Baltika (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.